# Will Finland officially participate in Eurovision Song Contest 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 83% across 20 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurovisionparticipants
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.729Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 83% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: Italy

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-albania-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-alb |
| Armenia | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-armenia-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-arm |
| Australia | 86¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-officially-participate-in-eurovisio-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-aus |
| Austria | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-austria-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-aust |
| Azerbaijan | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-azerbaijan-officially-participate-in-eurovisi-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-aze |
| Belgium | 43¢ | −18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-belgium-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-bel |
| Bulgaria | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bulgaria-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-bul |
| Cyprus | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cyprus-officially-participate-in-eurovision-s-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-cyr |
| Croatia | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-cro |
| Czechia | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-czechia-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-cze |
| Denmark | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-denmark-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-den |
| Estonia | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-estonia-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-est |
| Finland | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-finland-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-fin |
| France | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-officially-participate-in-eurovision-s-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-fra |
| Georgia | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-georgia-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-geo |
| Germany | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-officially-participate-in-eurovision-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-ger |
| Greece | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greece-officially-participate-in-eurovision-s-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-gre |
| Israel | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-officially-participate-in-eurovision-s-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-isr |
| Italy | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-officially-participate-in-eurovision-so-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-ita |
| Latvia | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-latvia-officially-participate-in-eurovision-s-kalshi-kxeurovisionparticipants-27-lat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 85 |
| 2026-05-25 | 3 |
| 2026-06-01 | 84 |
| 2026-06-08 | 86 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Albania +83pp 2→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Armenia +83pp 2→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Australia +83pp 2→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Austria +83pp 2→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Azerbaijan +83pp 2→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the estimated likelihood that Finland will officially enter the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest. The 55% probability sits between two divergent market assessments: Kalshi traders price participation at 61%, while Polymarket traders estimate 36%, suggesting meaningful disagreement about Finland's intentions. Finland has participated in nearly every Eurovision since 1961 and typically announces participation months in advance. Resolution depends primarily on whether Finland's broadcaster YLE formally confirms entry by the official submission deadline, typically in early 2026. The cross-venue gap indicates traders weight differently either Finland's historical participation patterns, current broadcaster funding decisions, or recent shifts in Eurovision engagement among Nordic countries.

### Key factors

- Finland's historical participation rate: contested in nearly every Eurovision since 1961, with only occasional absences
- YLE broadcaster funding and strategic decisions: Finnish broadcasting decisions typically announced 6-12 months before the contest
- Official submission deadline: the EBU's formal participation cutoff typically occurs 2-3 months before the May event
- Nordic region participation trends: patterns of other Scandinavian countries' Eurovision engagement and budget allocations
- Published statements from YLE or Finnish media regarding 2026 Eurovision participation as of Q1-Q2 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurovisionparticipants
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eurovisionparticipants

## License

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