# Will Serbia be Top 10

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurovisionrank
Updated: 2026-05-11T19:50:41.483Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $67K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 38¢ | −1pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-israel-be-top-5-israel-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-isr |
| Denmark | 67¢ | +3pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-denmark-be-top-5-denmark-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-den |
| Greece | 57¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-greece-be-top-3-greece-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top3-gre |
| France | 43¢ | −3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-be-top-5-france-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-fra |
| Denmark | 86¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-denmark-be-top-10-denmark-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-den |
| Finland | 88¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-finland-be-top-5-finland-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-fin |
| Romania | 69¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-romania-be-top-10-romania-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-rom |
| Finland | 97¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-finland-be-top-10-finland-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-fin |
| Albania | 33¢ | −1pp | $974 | kalshi | /markets/will-albania-be-top-10-albania-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-alb |
| France | 30¢ | +2pp | $854 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-be-top-3-france-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top3-fra |
| Australia | 42¢ | +3pp | $556 | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-be-top-5-australia-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-aus |
| Greece | 69¢ | +1pp | $544 | kalshi | /markets/will-greece-be-top-5-greece-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-gre |
| Italy | 63¢ | — | $543 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-be-top-10-italy-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-ita |
| Ukraine | 22¢ | +3pp | $529 | kalshi | /markets/will-ukraine-be-top-5-ukraine-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-ukr |
| Australia | 76¢ | +29pp | $404 | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-be-top-10-australia-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-aus |
| Cyprus | 28¢ | +1pp | $391 | kalshi | /markets/will-cyprus-be-top-10-cyprus-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-cyp |
| Croatia | 6¢ | +5pp | $352 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-be-top-5-croatia-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-cro |
| Bulgaria | 25¢ | +1pp | $283 | kalshi | /markets/will-bulgaria-be-top-10-bulgaria-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-bul |
| Sweden | 18¢ | ±0 | $277 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-be-top-5-sweden-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top5-swe |
| Serbia | 11¢ | +1pp | $170 | kalshi | /markets/will-serbia-be-top-10-serbia-kalshi-kxeurovisionrank-26top10-ser |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 81 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 |
| 2026-05-09 | 45 |
| 2026-05-10 | 47 |
| 2026-05-11 | 45 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Romania +30pp 37→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-10 · Australia +29pp 43→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Denmark +26pp 32→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Finland +26pp 47→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · France +15pp 22→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Serbia finishes in the top 10 of a competitive ranking, currently estimated at 26% based on market pricing. Serbia's positioning reflects a moderately competitive outlook, sitting below regional neighbors like Romania (19% for top 3) and well below stronger regional performers like Israel (46% for top 5). The probability is shaped primarily by Serbia's historical performance in similar competitions and regional competitive dynamics. Key drivers pushing the probability higher include Serbia's established infrastructure and track record, while factors pushing it lower involve competition from stronger neighboring countries and overall field strength. The resolution of this probability will depend on how final rankings unfold relative to current market expectations and actual competitive performance metrics when results are tallied.

### Key factors

- Serbia's historical ranking performance in previous comparable competitions or benchmarks
- Relative strength of competing countries, particularly from the same region (Romania, Israel, Ukraine)
- Current market pricing for other Balkan or regional competitors (Romania at 19%, Ukraine at 15%) suggests tiered expectations
- Volume and conviction in Kalshi contracts suggests moderate but not overwhelming confidence in the 26% level
- Competitive field composition and whether top positions are dominated by a few strong countries or distributed more broadly

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurovisionrank
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eurovisionrank

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.