# Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026 — ↓ 1.12

> ↑ 1.20 leads at 72%, runner-up 60% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurusd-hit
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:54.793Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ 1.20 at 72%
- Runner-up: ↓ 1.14 at 60%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 1.20 | 72¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-120-polymarket-0x126e7616167c979f0cc0418846e66637690735ebf08b9bb1aed7dcb6381e220e |
| ↓ 1.14 | 60¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-114-polymarket-0xce3db986c20f4bfc4bb65f467f124e269833abee42a7442a8244be7b4ffbbb8a |
| ↑ 1.24 | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-124-polymarket-0xaa15864c0149ea2ae27e0e55f25f146ce35f85573af20ef317df3c97f0f0307e |
| ↑ 1.22 | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-122-polymarket-0xbfd47c0b5d9a02c5fec747ac91c9615b0d61716c4adeeeb82820d21fc11e1db7 |
| ↓ 1.12 | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-112-polymarket-0x3c868e9850a59e8f123d363aa8446c05dd267b8946a75abf0d99535474eb3981 |
| ↑ 1.26 | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-126-polymarket-0x9061e5ce791ef28b2f281096dbd65c45024027053f10ca763caee30892ae63da |
| ↑ 1.30 | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-130-polymarket-0x3f9d48f00845c826ea30f03150513f9ecc4741934dc880f982402083ec0e287e |
| ↓ 1.10 | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-110-polymarket-0xf2aab71f624e1c647f4bf99c1288b1d480a01e417dc08ffd30ec843099c7dddc |
| ↑ 1.35 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-135-polymarket-0xa3f6c3f05fc4ffded5ccf889d46456fd5de1d7a7317dac3900ad616c1deecfc6 |
| ↓ 1.05 | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-105-polymarket-0x1692c444711c77ceac04f8812943a8b02ae2110fe7428c38c7f9afd9302c5483 |
| ↑ 1.40 | 7¢ | +14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-140-polymarket-0x78cd5d98ba52ab7471e607a98b496cf1d64d21f32e42aa8cced5083ec9d78a1f |
| ↓ 1.00 | 5¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-100-polymarket-0x191b7db868425a5af73c37fe2aa505290f6de53eca4092f7dbf624649e15d81e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ 1.20 | ↓ 1.14 | ↑ 1.24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 70 | 57 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | 76 | 60 | 44 |
| 2026-04-15 | 80 | 67 | 43 |
| 2026-04-19 | 78 | 60 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 72 | 60 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 72 | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 74 | 55 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 78 | 59 | 57 |
| 2026-05-03 | 72 | — | 56 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · ↓ 1.10 +18pp 22→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↓ 1.05 +16pp 8→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 1.05 −15pp 24→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 1.40 +14pp 8→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 1.30 +13pp 20→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 73% chance that EUR/USD will fall below 1.12 by year-end 2026, reflecting trader expectations of euro weakness relative to the dollar. The probability reflects divergent monetary policy expectations: the European Central Bank maintaining lower rates longer than the U.S. Federal Reserve typically supports dollar strength, while eurozone economic growth concerns and geopolitical risks on Europe's periphery add downward pressure on the euro. Key drivers include the outcome of the next ECB rate decision cycle (typically June meetings), U.S. inflation data that influences Fed policy direction, and any escalation in regional tensions affecting risk sentiment. The contract will resolve when EUR/USD either crosses below 1.12 or the year ends, with most uncertainty clearing as economic data accumulates through summer 2026.

### Key factors

- ECB rate differential relative to the Fed: the wider the gap favoring higher U.S. rates, the more downward pressure on EUR/USD
- Eurozone GDP growth and inflation readings in Q2-Q3 2026: weaker data supports euro depreciation toward 1.12
- U.S. employment and inflation prints: stronger readings keep Fed rates elevated, supporting dollar strength
- Geopolitical risk events in Europe (trade tensions, political instability): typically weaken the euro relative to safe-haven assets
- Technical support levels and volume patterns at 1.12: determines whether market participants see this level as sustainable or temporary

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurusd-hit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eurusd-hit

## License

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