# Will the EUR/USD price be above 1.14999 at Jun 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

> 1.18000 or above leads at 9%, runner-up 9% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurusdw
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:51.795Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: 1.18000 or above at 9%
- Runner-up: 1.15000 or above at 9%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $276

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.18000 or above | 9¢ | +3pp | $276 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-eurusd-price-be-above-117999-at-jun-30-20-kalshi-kxeurusdw-26jun3017-t1.17999 |
| 1.15000 or above | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-eurusd-price-be-above-114999-at-jun-30-20-kalshi-kxeurusdw-26jun3017-t1.14999 |
| 1.20000 or above | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-eurusd-price-be-above-119999-at-jun-30-20-kalshi-kxeurusdw-26jun3017-t1.19999 |
| 1.19000 or above | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-eurusd-price-be-above-118999-at-jun-30-20-kalshi-kxeurusdw-26jun3017-t1.18999 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1.18000 or above | 1.15000 or above | 1.20000 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | — | 58 | — |
| 2026-06-15 | — | — | 70 |
| 2026-06-16 | 47 | — | 1 |
| 2026-06-18 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 2026-06-19 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-06-22 | 6 | 31 | 7 |
| 2026-06-26 | 5 | 13 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · 1.15000 or above +28pp 3→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 1.15000 or above −14pp 31→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 1.15000 or above −6pp 17→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · 1.18000 or above −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · 1.15000 or above −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 49% probability that EUR/USD will close above 1.15 on June 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT, reflecting near-even odds for a modest euro strength scenario over the next 16 days. The probability hinges on the divergence between U.S. and eurozone monetary policy: if the Federal Reserve signals further rate cuts or economic weakness emerges in U.S. data, the euro tends to appreciate. Conversely, if the ECB signals hawkish policy or eurozone growth disappoints, downward pressure on EUR/USD intensifies. The most immediate catalyst is the Federal Reserve's June 18 meeting and policy decision, which could shift market expectations about near-term rate trajectories. Secondary drivers include eurozone inflation data and any geopolitical risk shifts affecting safe-haven flows into the dollar.

### Key factors

- Federal Reserve policy announcement on June 18, 2026—forward guidance on interest rates directly influences USD demand and EUR/USD direction
- Relative interest rate differentials between the Fed funds rate and ECB deposit rate—wider spreads typically support USD strength and lower EUR/USD levels
- Upcoming U.S. economic data (PCE inflation, employment, GDP) between now and June 30—weakness could reduce Fed rate support and push EUR/USD higher
- ECB communication and inflation expectations in the eurozone—hawkish signals or sticky inflation could strengthen the euro above 1.15
- Current level sits exactly at 1.15, placing the breakeven point near technical support/resistance, meaning small data surprises could trigger outsized moves in either direction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/eurusdw
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=eurusdw

## License

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