# Evo Morales arrested by...

> June 30 leads at 45%, runner-up 19% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/evo-morales-arrested
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.508Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 45%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 19%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 45¢ | +1pp | $110 | polymarket | /markets/evo-morales-arrested-by-june-30-polymarket-0x2b54732fd099106b310d45e1f51916a8c46129ecaa38389dd4eeee44b7585439 |
| May 31 | 19¢ | +8pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/evo-morales-arrested-by-may-31-polymarket-0x34754b217c530433402b30f238fee045760592c93c06f977b0a805911005c723 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | — | 24 |
| 2026-05-14 | — | 31 |
| 2026-05-21 | 51 | 8 |
| 2026-05-28 | 35 | 17 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · June 30 +20pp 22→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · June 30 −17pp 51→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · May 31 −13pp 21→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · June 30 −12pp 34→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · May 31 +8pp 9→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia, will be arrested by June 30, 2026. The 51% probability for a June 30 resolution versus 9% for May 31 suggests traders expect the arrest scenario to remain unresolved in the immediate term but potentially materialize within the broader timeframe. Morales has faced legal challenges and arrest warrants related to alleged statutory rape and human trafficking charges; his political status and ability to evade capture in Bolivia or abroad are central to the outcome. The main factors pushing probabilities are Bolivian government enforcement capacity, Morales's current location, and any changes in his legal status or political immunity. A shift in Bolivia's political leadership, extradition requests, or explicit arrest warrants would be the primary catalyst determining resolution.

### Key factors

- Morales's current physical location and whether he remains within Bolivia's jurisdiction or flees to a country without extradition agreements
- Bolivia's willingness and capacity to pursue arrest, which depends on domestic political stability and control of security forces
- Status of pending legal cases and whether courts issue enforceable arrest warrants before June 30, 2026
- Regional political dynamics and whether neighboring countries provide asylum or reject Morales entry
- Changes in Bolivia's government or judicial leadership that could alter prosecution priorities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/evo-morales-arrested
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=evo-morales-arrested

## License

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