# EWC 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 10 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ewc
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.468Z
Category: geopolitics
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-26

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $203

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Qualifiers: KT Rolster | 18¢ | −1pp | $110 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-korea-qualifiers-kt-rolster-polymarket-0xd4286c6eff6fec79599c4392a351874307e189c2d6f8a6dbea3170b717691e4e |
| China Qualifiers: JD Gaming | 63¢ | −8pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-china-qualifiers-jd-gaming-polymarket-0xc06ab0bd7ffa94e96e07608cf7ef871d387d021d992e917eedb562bb87e02f81 |
| China Qualifiers: Bilibili Gaming | 68¢ | +1pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-china-qualifiers-bilibili-gaming-polymarket-0x71ce16d314c6ed8e054b5056d343e7de65442dc4c3fa689be6a6d59b421e03d5 |
| China Qualifiers: Anyone's Legend | 69¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-china-qualifiers-anyones-legend-polymarket-0x66c5e1779e11a6637d7987e8992372c56ae9e135b877b391615e281830a25978 |
| China Qualifiers: Weibo Gaming | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-china-qualifiers-weibo-gaming-polymarket-0x798fbedfb4c5f6b55da5ff5a8c4009201a3da036a8e747280ccf9a159428568e |
| Korea Qualifiers: DRX | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-korea-qualifiers-drx-polymarket-0xf7d372ec35a87c93311feacde2adb45c02a15cad8ee135c4d4e9db6afb5ca583 |
| Korea Qualifiers: SOOPers | 4¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-korea-qualifiers-soopers-polymarket-0x37df59afa66d15276a19099d64bf8c5d5f3b5c80fefd50c51df7ae7efdcfbfd0 |
| Korea Qualifiers: Hanwha Life Esports | 80¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-korea-qualifiers-hanwha-life-esports-polymarket-0x120d3dd3e9029fbd5603fdd0ef2ea733f5786b41af716b7242814b284dafe690 |
| Korea Qualifiers: BRION | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-korea-qualifiers-brion-polymarket-0xcf36a7ede58a7565b85ac63985544474afefd6516b81bfb8cc8e825b23075f80 |
| Korea Qualifiers: T1 | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ewc-2026-korea-qualifiers-t1-polymarket-0x00161225e24382f0b8f2856f1e9d59a7a5839a9a231b3a33d52dd28ba89205bf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 |
| 2026-05-09 | 56 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Korea Qualifiers: KT Rolster −42pp 61→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Korea Qualifiers: DRX +32pp 5→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Korea Qualifiers: T1 +26pp 47→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · China Qualifiers: JD Gaming +20pp 57→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · China Qualifiers: JD Gaming −8pp 72→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 37% probability reflects the aggregate market estimate that one or more specific teams will qualify for the 2026 EWC (likely an esports world championship) event across multiple regional qualifiers. The current price is driven by uncertainty across multiple regions—EMEA, Korea, and China each have qualifier tournaments where outcomes remain unresolved. Market depth varies significantly by region; Karmine Corp in EMEA trades at 75¢ suggesting strong qualification likelihood, while other contracts show lower conviction. The main factors determining whether this probability shifts are the upcoming qualifier tournament results in each region and the final team roster compositions being announced. Qualifier tournaments are typically scheduled months in advance, so specific competition dates would be the primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty. Until qualifier outcomes are determined, markets will remain relatively wide given the distributed risk across multiple regions and teams.

### Key factors

- Karmine Corp EMEA qualifier contract trades at 75¢, indicating strong market conviction for at least one specific team's qualification
- Multiple regional qualifiers (EMEA, Korea, China) create distributed uncertainty; no single region dominates the 37% aggregate probability
- Trading volume concentration in Galions (EMEA, $244 24h vol) versus low volume contracts suggests information asymmetry across regions
- The 37% level implies roughly 2-in-3 odds against qualification, indicating meaningful doubt about qualifier outcomes despite some high-conviction sub-contracts
- Qualifier tournament dates and bracket pairings represent the primary upcoming catalyst for probability movement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ewc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ewc

## License

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