# Will Democrats win older women (65+) in the exit poll

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 13 contracts — refreshed 21 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/exitpoll
Updated: 2026-09-24T09:20:49.515Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-06

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 25¢ | −22pp | $411 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-white-women-in-the-exit-poll-de-kalshi-kxexitpoll-whiwom-dem |
| Republican party | 30¢ | — | $351 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-young-men-18-29-in-the-exit-p-kalshi-kxexitpoll-youmen-rep |
| Republican party | 25¢ | +10pp | $349 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-white-women-in-the-exit-poll-kalshi-kxexitpoll-whiwom-rep |
| Democratic party | 62¢ | +3pp | $314 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-young-men-18-29-in-the-exit-pol-kalshi-kxexitpoll-youmen-dem |
| Democratic party | 8¢ | −35pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-white-college-educated-men-in-t-kalshi-kxexitpoll-wcolmen-dem |
| Democratic party | 6¢ | −29pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-white-suburban-women-in-the-exi-kalshi-kxexitpoll-wsubwom-dem |
| Republican party | 14¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-white-college-educated-men-in-kalshi-kxexitpoll-wcolmen-rep |
| Republican party | 8¢ | −2pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-white-suburban-women-in-the-e-kalshi-kxexitpoll-wsubwom-rep |
| Democratic party | 88¢ | +1pp | $79 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-older-women-65-in-the-exit-poll-kalshi-kxexitpoll-oldwom-dem |
| Democratic party | 91¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-independents-in-the-exit-poll-d-kalshi-kxexitpoll-ind-dem |
| Republican party | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-independents-in-the-exit-poll-kalshi-kxexitpoll-ind-rep |
| Democratic party | 85¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-latino-men-in-the-exit-poll-dem-kalshi-kxexitpoll-latmen-dem |
| Republican party | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-latino-men-in-the-exit-poll-r-kalshi-kxexitpoll-latmen-rep |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 50 |
| 2026-09-18 | 48 |
| 2026-09-19 | 66 |
| 2026-09-23 | 32 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-23 · Democratic party −35pp 63→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Democratic party −29pp 65→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Democratic party −22pp 54→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Democratic party −17pp 93→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Democratic party −17pp 86→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that Democrats will win the over-65 female vote in the 2026 election based on exit poll results. At 21%, the market implies Republicans are heavily favored to win this demographic. Older women have traditionally leaned Republican in recent cycles, though this group has shown some movement toward Democrats in recent elections. The current low probability reflects both historical voting patterns and recent polling trends. The resolution will depend on final exit poll data released on election night 2026, which will provide the definitive breakdown of how women 65 and older voted. Key dynamics shaping this probability include overall campaign messaging on issues like healthcare and Social Security, turnout rates among older voters, and any major events affecting senior voter sentiment between now and November 2026.

### Key factors

- Historical voting patterns show Republicans consistently winning women 65+ in recent presidential elections by margins of 8-12 percentage points
- Exit poll methodology and sample composition can create variance in results compared to actual vote totals, particularly for demographic subgroups
- Healthcare policy messaging and Social Security proposals are primary issues influencing older women's voting behavior
- Turnout rates among older voters relative to other demographics will affect which candidate's message reaches this group most effectively
- Major policy events or legislative actions between September 2026 and November 2026 could shift senior voter preferences

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/exitpoll
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=exitpoll
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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