# Will Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N) for July 2026 be above $430,000

> Above $415,000 leads at 89%, runner-up 79% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/exushome
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:48.164Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-10

## Headline

- Leader: Above $415,000 at 89%
- Runner-up: Above $420,000 at 79%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $415,000 | 89¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t415000 |
| Above $420,000 | 79¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t420000 |
| Above $425,000 | 74¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t425000 |
| Above $430,000 | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t430000 |
| Above $435,000 | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t435000 |
| Above $440,000 | 14¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t440000 |
| Above $450,000 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t450000 |
| Above $445,000 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t445000 |
| Above $455,000 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-median-sales-price-of-existing-homes-hosmedus-kalshi-kxexushome-26sep10-t455000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $415,000 | Above $420,000 | Above $425,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 86 | 73 | 66 |
| 2026-08-13 | 88 | 70 | 68 |
| 2026-08-20 | 67 | 52 | 55 |
| 2026-08-26 | 24 | 79 | 74 |
| 2026-08-27 | 46 | — | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-26 · Above $415,000 −65pp 89→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above $420,000 −29pp 81→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above $420,000 +27pp 52→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above $415,000 +22pp 67→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-27 · Above $415,000 +22pp 24→46¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates traders believe there is a 94% chance the median price of existing U.S. homes will exceed $415,000 in July 2026, with declining confidence at higher price points. The assessment reflects recent housing market trends and seasonal patterns in home sales data. Upward pressure comes from persistent inflation, tight housing supply, and demand factors, while downward pressure could emerge from rising interest rates, economic slowdown, or increased housing inventory. The July 2026 median price will be officially released by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system, which publishes this monthly metric. Traders show sharp confidence drop above $440,000 (43% probability), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about sustained price appreciation at higher levels. The narrow 24-hour trading volume on higher-price contracts indicates less active debate on extreme outcomes.

### Key factors

- Median existing home price has historically averaged around $400,000-$430,000 range; exceeding $415,000 requires modest appreciation from recent baselines
- Mortgage interest rates and lending standards directly influence buyer purchasing power and price support levels
- Housing inventory levels and new construction data affect supply-side price pressures through June and into July 2026
- Economic indicators released in June-July 2026 (employment, inflation, consumer confidence) will influence buyer demand
- Seasonal factors: July is typically mid-year reporting period; any June housing data surprises will inform final price outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/exushome
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=exushome

## License

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