# Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ezgdpyoyf
Updated: 2026-05-30T19:20:12.869Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-05

## Headline

- Probability: 61% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.6% | 61¢ | −46pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-euro-area-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-flash-for-q1-20-kalshi-kxezgdpyoyf-26jun05-t0.6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 65 |
| 2026-05-14 | 94 |
| 2026-05-15 | 95 |
| 2026-05-17 | 94 |
| 2026-05-29 | 48 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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