# Will Charles Leclerc win the F1 Drivers Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 4 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.058Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-22

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 18¢ | −1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-lewis-hamilton-win-the-f1-drivers-championshi-kalshi-kxf1-26-lh |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 59¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-andrea-kimi-antonelli-win-the-f1-drivers-cham-kalshi-kxf1-26-ka |
| Max Verstappen | 3¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-max-verstappen-win-the-f1-drivers-championshi-kalshi-kxf1-26-mv |
| George Russell | 11¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-george-russell-win-the-f1-drivers-championshi-kalshi-kxf1-26-gr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 31 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 |
| 2026-06-19 | 40 |
| 2026-06-26 | 27 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that Charles Leclerc will finish the 2026 Formula 1 season with the most points. At 19%, the market suggests Leclerc is among the contenders but faces significant competition, likely from drivers at better-performing teams or those with stronger track records this season. The probability is shaped by Ferrari's current competitiveness relative to rivals, Leclerc's performance through the season so far, and his head-to-head matchup against his teammate. The championship will be resolved in late November or early December 2026 when the final races conclude, with each race result updating expectations about the title outcome. Key factors include Ferrari's upgrade trajectory, Leclerc's points total relative to other championship contenders, and whether injuries or technical failures affect his ability to compete in remaining races.

### Key factors

- Ferrari's constructors' championship position and relative performance to top teams like Red Bull, Mercedes, and McLaren
- Leclerc's current points total compared to his closest rivals at the halfway point or later in the season
- Performance consistency: whether Leclerc has finished races strongly or experienced DNFs (retirements) that impact championship math
- Head-to-head record against his teammate and direct comparison of their points accumulation
- Remaining calendar difficulty: whether upcoming tracks favor Ferrari or disadvantage Leclerc relative to competitors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=f1

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.