# Will Mercedes AMG Motorsport win the F1 Constructors Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 2 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1constructors
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.935Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-21

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes AMG Motorsport | 84¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-mercedes-amg-motorsport-win-the-f1-constructo-kalshi-kxf1constructors-26-mer |
| Ferrari | 12¢ | +1pp | $568 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferrari-win-the-f1-constructors-championship-kalshi-kxf1constructors-26-fer |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 44 |
| 2026-06-29 | 48 |
| 2026-07-06 | 48 |
| 2026-07-12 | 48 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Mercedes AMG Motorsport is given roughly a 31% chance to win the 2026 Formula 1 Constructors Championship. The current assessment reflects Mercedes' recent performance trajectory, their technical capabilities in responding to regulation changes, and competitive pressure from teams like Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren. Key factors influencing this probability include Mercedes' success with new power unit regulations, driver performance consistency, and mid-season performance trends. The primary uncertainty will be resolved through actual race results throughout the 2026 season, with particular attention to early races that typically establish competitive positioning and the summer break progress reports that reveal technical development effectiveness. Teams' upgrades and performance adjustments during the season will provide continuous data to reassess this probability.

### Key factors

- Mercedes' power unit performance relative to competitors under 2026 technical regulations
- Constructor championship points differential compared to top rivals after first quarter of season races
- Reliability of Mercedes' new hybrid power unit design compared to Ferrari, McLaren, and Red Bull
- Driver consistency between Lewis Hamilton and the second Mercedes driver in scoring points
- Effectiveness of Mercedes' mid-season upgrades as evidenced by performance gains between summer break and final races

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1constructors
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=f1constructors

## License

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