# What will be Max Verstappen's next F1 team

> Red Bull Racing leads at 47%, runner-up 24% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1nextteam
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.983Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-12

## Headline

- Leader: Red Bull Racing at 47%
- Runner-up: Mercedes at 24%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $839

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Racing | 47¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-max-verstappens-next-f1-team-red-bull-kalshi-kxf1nextteam-27ver-red |
| Mercedes | 24¢ | +7pp | $496 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-max-verstappens-next-f1-team-mercedes-kalshi-kxf1nextteam-27ver-mer |
| McLaren | 12¢ | −1pp | $210 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-max-verstappens-next-f1-team-mclaren-kalshi-kxf1nextteam-27ver-mcl |
| Retires / No Team | 6¢ | −1pp | $120 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-max-verstappens-next-f1-team-retires-kalshi-kxf1nextteam-27ver-none |
| Ferrari | 4¢ | — | $13 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-max-verstappens-next-f1-team-ferrari-kalshi-kxf1nextteam-27ver-fer |
| Aston Martin | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-max-verstappens-next-f1-team-aston-ma-kalshi-kxf1nextteam-27ver-ast |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Red Bull Racing | Mercedes | McLaren |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 60 | — | 21 |
| 2026-07-09 | 57 | 1 | 28 |
| 2026-07-13 | 52 | — | 36 |
| 2026-07-15 | 53 | 5 | 31 |
| 2026-07-20 | 6 | 18 | 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | 52 | 19 | 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | 48 | — | 12 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · Red Bull Racing +48pp 7→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Red Bull Racing −31pp 37→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · McLaren −13pp 19→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Mercedes +7pp 12→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-24 · Mercedes −6pp 18→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market currently assigns a 60% probability that Max Verstappen remains with Red Bull Racing for his next F1 contract, with McLaren as the leading alternative at 24%. This reflects Verstappen's established position as Red Bull's lead driver and the team's recent competitive performance, though McLaren's recent improvements and potential driver market shifts create meaningful uncertainty. The probability would rise if Red Bull secures major upgrades or championship success, and would fall if McLaren gains pace or if public statements from Verstappen suggest dissatisfaction. Key resolution events include the 2026-2027 contract announcements and driver market movements during the off-season, typically occurring between September and December. Current low trading volume on the Red Bull outcome suggests limited recent confidence changes, while McLaren contract volume indicates active speculation about potential moves.

### Key factors

- Red Bull Racing held Verstappen through 2025-2026 with stated multi-year commitments; contract renewal or expiration timing determines when he becomes available
- McLaren's 2024-2026 performance trajectory and driver lineup decisions (Norris, Piastri) directly affect appeal as an alternative destination
- Verstappen's public statements regarding team satisfaction, technical direction, or competitive ambitions would shift market expectations materially
- 2026 F1 power unit changes (new engine regulations) create technical uncertainty that could favor or disadvantage Red Bull relative to competitors
- Driver market cascade effects: changes to Hamilton, Leclerc, or other top drivers' team assignments indirectly constrain or expand Verstappen's realistic options

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1nextteam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=f1nextteam

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.