# Miami Grand Prix

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 19 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1pole
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:49.021Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.3M

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 29¢ | +11pp | $419K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-max-verstappen-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-ver |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 36¢ | +10pp | $269K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-andrea-kimi-antonelli-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-ant |
| Lando Norris | 10¢ | −15pp | $254K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-lando-norris-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-nor |
| Charles Leclerc | 14¢ | +4pp | $129K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-charles-leclerc-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-lec |
| George Russell | 6¢ | −3pp | $77K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-rus |
| Miami Grand Prix postponed or canceled | 3¢ | ±0 | $53K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-miami-grand-prix-be-postponed-or-canceled-kalshi-kxf1delay-26mia-yes |
| Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen | 64¢ | +33pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-max-verstappen-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ver |
| Podium Finishers: Oscar Piastri | 15¢ | −18pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-oscar-piastri-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-pia |
| Podium Finishers: Lewis Hamilton | 17¢ | −2pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-lewis-hamilton-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ham |
| Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 76¢ | +20pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-andrea-kimi-anto-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-ant |
| Podium Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 60¢ | +11pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-andrea-kimi-anto-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ant |
| Top 10 Finishers: Isack Hadjar | 33¢ | +14pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-isack-hadjar-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-had |
| Podium Finishers: George Russell | 38¢ | +7pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-rus |
| Podium Finishers: Charles Leclerc | 46¢ | +11pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-charles-leclerc-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-lec |
| Fastest Lap: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 31¢ | +6pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-andrea-kimi-antonelli-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-ant |
| Fastest Lap: George Russell | 7¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-rus |
| Fastest Lap: Lando Norris | 27¢ | −4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-lando-norris-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-nor |
| Top 10 Finishers: Nico Hulkenberg | 43¢ | +11pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-nico-hulkenberg-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-hul |
| Top 10 Finishers: Franco Colapinto | 45¢ | +15pp | $672 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-franco-colapinto-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-col |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 34 |
| 2026-04-26 | 44 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli −71pp 86→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli +40pp 15→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Top 10 Finishers: Isack Hadjar −36pp 53→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen +33pp 24→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Podium Finishers: George Russell −25pp 58→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 78% probability indicates that market participants see a clear favorite for the Miami Grand Prix winner, with Max Verstappen commanding 24 cents compared to the next-highest individual candidate at 37 cents (Andrea Kimi Antonelli). The elevated level reflects Verstappen's recent form, car performance, and historical success at this venue, though the significant depth of competition—with multiple drivers priced between 10-37 cents—shows meaningful uncertainty remains. The race itself, scheduled for race day, will definitively resolve this market. Key factors include relative qualifying performance, current championship standings, weather conditions on race day, and any technical issues affecting top contenders during practice and qualifying sessions.

### Key factors

- Max Verstappen's contract price (24¢) represents strong market confidence but is lower than the combined probability of all other drivers, suggesting the outcome is not predetermined
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli's relatively high individual price (37¢) indicates the market assigns substantial winning probability to a non-Verstappen driver, reflecting competitive uncertainty
- Trading volume of $156,391 in 24 hours for the Verstappen contract shows active price discovery; significant volume changes could signal shifting participant expectations
- The presence of five different drivers in top contracts above 5¢ indicates multiple realistic pathways to victory rather than dominance by a single competitor
- Qualifying results and weather forecasts in the 48 hours before the race would likely shift probabilities as information about track conditions and relative car performance becomes available

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1pole
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=f1pole

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.