# Miami Grand Prix

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 19 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1racesprint
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:53.067Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.3M

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 29¢ | +11pp | $419K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-max-verstappen-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-ver |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 36¢ | +10pp | $269K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-andrea-kimi-antonelli-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-ant |
| Lando Norris | 10¢ | −15pp | $254K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-lando-norris-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-nor |
| Charles Leclerc | 14¢ | +4pp | $129K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-charles-leclerc-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-lec |
| George Russell | 6¢ | −3pp | $77K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-rus |
| Miami Grand Prix postponed or canceled | 3¢ | ±0 | $53K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-miami-grand-prix-be-postponed-or-canceled-kalshi-kxf1delay-26mia-yes |
| Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen | 64¢ | +33pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-max-verstappen-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ver |
| Podium Finishers: Oscar Piastri | 15¢ | −18pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-oscar-piastri-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-pia |
| Podium Finishers: Lewis Hamilton | 17¢ | −2pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-lewis-hamilton-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ham |
| Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 76¢ | +20pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-andrea-kimi-anto-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-ant |
| Podium Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 60¢ | +11pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-andrea-kimi-anto-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ant |
| Top 10 Finishers: Isack Hadjar | 33¢ | +14pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-isack-hadjar-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-had |
| Podium Finishers: George Russell | 38¢ | +7pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-rus |
| Podium Finishers: Charles Leclerc | 46¢ | +11pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-charles-leclerc-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-lec |
| Fastest Lap: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 31¢ | +6pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-andrea-kimi-antonelli-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-ant |
| Fastest Lap: George Russell | 7¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-rus |
| Fastest Lap: Lando Norris | 27¢ | −4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-lando-norris-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-nor |
| Top 10 Finishers: Nico Hulkenberg | 43¢ | +11pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-nico-hulkenberg-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-hul |
| Top 10 Finishers: Franco Colapinto | 45¢ | +15pp | $672 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-franco-colapinto-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-col |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 34 |
| 2026-04-26 | 44 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli −71pp 86→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli +40pp 15→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Top 10 Finishers: Isack Hadjar −36pp 53→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen +33pp 24→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Podium Finishers: George Russell −25pp 58→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Miami Grand Prix has an 83% probability that the leader will win, reflecting the highest-priced contract on the market. This represents market participants' best estimate of one driver's likelihood of victory at this race, though significant uncertainty remains given that the runner-up carries 65% probability. Market pricing is driven by recent performance data, team competitiveness, and historical patterns at Miami's circuit characteristics. The upcoming qualifying session and practice sessions will provide real-time information about relative speed and vehicle setup, potentially shifting probabilities as teams reveal their true pace. The race itself on May 4, 2026, will resolve this contract definitively. Current contract distribution shows Max Verstappen leading at 24¢, followed by Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 37¢, indicating meaningful disagreement among market participants about who will finish first.

### Key factors

- Max Verstappen holds the highest individual win probability at 24¢, but contracts collectively indicate no single driver dominates; the second-place contract suggests competitive uncertainty
- Andrea Kimi Antonelli at 37¢ represents the second-largest probability weight, unusual for a secondary driver, suggesting specific expectations about reliability or competition levels
- Trading volume of $154,576 in 24 hours on Verstappen's contract indicates active repricing and substantial market participation
- The gap between the leader (83%) and runner-up (65%) suggests the market has identified a clear but not overwhelming favorite outcome
- Qualifying and practice data released before the race will directly inform contract repricing as teams' true relative performance becomes measurable

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1racesprint
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=f1racesprint

## License

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