# Miami Grand Prix Sprint Race

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 18 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1sprinttop5
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:49.782Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.3M

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 29¢ | +11pp | $419K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-max-verstappen-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-ver |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 36¢ | +10pp | $269K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-andrea-kimi-antonelli-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-ant |
| Lando Norris | 10¢ | −15pp | $254K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-lando-norris-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-nor |
| Charles Leclerc | 14¢ | +4pp | $129K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-charles-leclerc-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-lec |
| George Russell | 6¢ | −3pp | $77K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-winner-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1race-miagp26-rus |
| Miami Grand Prix postponed or canceled | 3¢ | ±0 | $53K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-miami-grand-prix-be-postponed-or-canceled-kalshi-kxf1delay-26mia-yes |
| Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen | 64¢ | +33pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-max-verstappen-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ver |
| Podium Finishers: Oscar Piastri | 15¢ | −18pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-oscar-piastri-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-pia |
| Podium Finishers: Lewis Hamilton | 17¢ | −2pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-lewis-hamilton-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ham |
| Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 76¢ | +20pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-andrea-kimi-anto-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-ant |
| Podium Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 60¢ | +11pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-andrea-kimi-anto-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-ant |
| Podium Finishers: George Russell | 38¢ | +7pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-rus |
| Podium Finishers: Charles Leclerc | 46¢ | +11pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-podium-finishers-charles-leclerc-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-miagp26-lec |
| Fastest Lap: Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 31¢ | +6pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-andrea-kimi-antonelli-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-ant |
| Fastest Lap: George Russell | 7¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-george-russell-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-rus |
| Fastest Lap: Lando Norris | 27¢ | −4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-fastest-lap-lando-norris-kalshi-kxf1fastlap-miagp26-nor |
| Top 10 Finishers: Esteban Ocon | 12¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-esteban-ocon-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-oco |
| Top 10 Finishers: Franco Colapinto | 45¢ | +15pp | $672 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-10-finishers-franco-colapinto-kalshi-kxf1top10-miagp26-col |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 34 |
| 2026-04-26 | 43 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli −71pp 86→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Top 10 Finishers: Andrea Kimi Antonelli +40pp 15→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Podium Finishers: Max Verstappen +33pp 24→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Podium Finishers: George Russell −25pp 58→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Top 10 Finishers: Esteban Ocon −25pp 32→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 26% probability represents the market's assessment that a sprint race will occur at the Miami Grand Prix in 2026. The contracts show Max Verstappen as the favorite winner at 24 cents if a sprint happens, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli as the second choice at 37 cents. Sprint race inclusion depends on Formula 1's calendar decisions and whether Miami retains sprint status for the upcoming season. The primary driver of this probability is the official F1 calendar announcement, which typically occurs months in advance. Key uncertainties include whether F1 continues expanding sprints as a format and Miami's specific designation. The market is pricing in meaningful doubt about sprint confirmation, likely because final calendar details may not yet be publicly confirmed or because recent F1 strategic shifts around sprint proliferation remain uncertain.

### Key factors

- F1 has not yet officially announced whether Miami hosts a sprint race in 2026, making calendar confirmation the primary resolution event
- Verstappen's 24-cent odds suggest he carries approximately 24-28% implied probability of winning if a sprint occurs, while Antonelli at 37 cents suggests lower confidence in his sprint performance relative to other races
- Trading volume is concentrated in the Verstappen contract ($154k 24h), indicating market focus on his championship contention rather than sprint-specific dynamics
- Sprint races remain discretionary calendar events; F1 has historically limited them to roughly 6 per season, creating genuine uncertainty about Miami's inclusion
- A 26% overall probability suggests the market assigns roughly 65-75% confidence that Miami will host a sprint in 2026, with remaining uncertainty on driver outcomes conditional on sprint confirmation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1sprinttop5
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=f1sprinttop5

## License

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