# Miami Grand Prix

> Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport leads at 52%, runner-up 19% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1topconstructor
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:59.551Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Leader: Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport at 52%
- Runner-up: Top Constructor?: Ferrari at 19%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport | 52¢ | +19pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-mercedes-amg-moto-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-mer |
| Top Constructor?: Ferrari | 19¢ | +8pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-ferrari-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-fer |
| Top Constructor?: McLaren | 10¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-mclaren-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-mcl |
| Top Constructor?: Red Bull Racing | 3¢ | +5pp | $383 | kalshi | /markets/miami-grand-prix-top-constructor-red-bull-racing-kalshi-kxf1topconstructor-miagp26-red |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport | Top Constructor?: Ferrari | Top Constructor?: McLaren |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 69 | 7 | 12 |
| 2026-04-30 | 70 | — | 13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 14 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 | 6 | 14 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 | 14 | 11 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport −56pp 70→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Top Constructor?: Mercedes AMG Motorsport +19pp 18→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Top Constructor?: McLaren +11pp 3→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Top Constructor?: McLaren −10pp 13→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Top Constructor?: Ferrari +8pp 6→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 83% probability indicates that traders believe the current leader—Hamilton in the KXF1TOP10-MIAGP26-HAM contract—has an 83% chance of finishing in the top 10 at the Miami Grand Prix. This level reflects expectations based on recent performance data, current grid positioning, and historical reliability at this circuit. The probability remains elevated because Hamilton and Mercedes have demonstrated consistent competitiveness, though weather conditions, mechanical failures, or unexpected strategic decisions could shift market confidence. The race itself, scheduled for its 2026 date in the Miami calendar, represents the ultimate resolution point; any pre-race developments—team announcements, practice session results, or injury updates—will likely trigger repricing as traders incorporate new information.

### Key factors

- Mercedes' recent race-to-race consistency and historical top-10 finishes at Miami in the 2024-2025 season
- Volume concentration: Verstappen at 24¢ and Antonelli at 37¢ across the winner-take-all contracts indicates fragmented opinion on who will lead, supporting the elevated floor for top-10 finish betting
- Final practice sessions and qualifying results in the 48 hours before race day will be the primary catalyst for probability adjustments
- Mechanical reliability track record for Mercedes power units in high-heat, high-humidity Miami conditions
- Field-wide competitive balance: if non-top-10 challengers post unusually strong times, the 83% floor may compress downward

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/f1topconstructor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=f1topconstructor

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.