# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is restored for US customers before Jun 20, 2026

> Before Jul 31, 2026 leads at 85%, runner-up 85% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fablerestore-27
Updated: 2026-06-25T21:20:49.624Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 31, 2026 at 85%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 24, 2026 at 85%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $151K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 31, 2026 | 85¢ | +4pp | $16K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfablerestore-27-26jul31 |
| Before Jul 24, 2026 | 85¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfablerestore-27-26jul24 |
| Before Jul 17, 2026 | 79¢ | +17pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfablerestore-27-26jul17 |
| Before Jul 10, 2026 | 61¢ | +17pp | $28K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfablerestore-27-26jul10 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 33¢ | +9pp | $58K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfablerestore-27-26jul01 |
| Before Jun 27, 2026 | 11¢ | +2pp | $40K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfablerestore-27-26jun27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 31, 2026 | Before Jul 24, 2026 | Before Jul 17, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 87 | 81 | 77 |
| 2026-06-18 | 73 | 55 | 65 |
| 2026-06-25 | 83 | 79 | 80 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Before Jul 24, 2026 +28pp 55→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Before Jul 10, 2026 +25pp 61→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Before Jul 24, 2026 −23pp 78→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Before Jul 1, 2026 −20pp 47→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Before Jul 17, 2026 +20pp 65→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Fable 5 access will be restored for US customers sometime before July 1, 2026, with a 64% chance assigned to this outcome. Markets are pricing in roughly a two-in-three likelihood that restoration occurs within the next two weeks. The pricing gap between the June 20 contract (40¢) and the July 1 contract (66¢) suggests traders believe most restoration activity, if it occurs, would happen in late June rather than immediately. The June 15 contract pricing near 11¢ indicates very low odds of restoration by tomorrow. Key drivers include the technical scope of the access issue, the priority level assigned by developers, and any public statements about timeline. Resolution will depend on whether official channels report access has been restored and when that announcement occurs.

### Key factors

- The June 15 contract trades at 11¢, indicating traders assign minimal probability to restoration within the next 24 hours, suggesting either technical complexity or lower urgency
- The 26-percentage-point spread between June 20 (40¢) and July 1 (66¢) contracts indicates most expected restoration activity clusters in late June rather than early or mid-month
- Kalshi's 24-hour volume ($2,570 for the June 20 contract) is lower than earlier-date contracts, potentially reflecting reduced trader conviction or lower interest in the near-term window
- The definition explicitly requires reporting by 'any of the Source Agencies,' meaning the resolution depends on official communication rather than user reports or informal indicators
- No scheduled maintenance windows or public timeline statements have been referenced, leaving restoration dependent on unannounced developer decisions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fablerestore-27
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fablerestore-27

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.