# Will Southampton win the FA Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/facup
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.753Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $958

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 29¢ | −1pp | $535 | kalshi | /markets/will-chelsea-win-the-fa-cup-chelsea-kalshi-kxfacup-26-che |
| Manchester City | 69¢ | ±0 | $423 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-city-win-the-fa-cup-manchester-cit-kalshi-kxfacup-26-mci |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 |
| 2026-04-25 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 31 |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the chances Southampton will win the FA Cup in the 2025-26 season. The 14% aggregate estimate reflects Southampton's mid-table or lower-league standing and the difficulty any team faces in winning a knockout competition with dozens of competitors. The 21-percentage-point gap between venues (Polymarket at 32% vs. Kalshi at 11%) suggests uncertainty about Southampton's current form, recent transfers, or injury status. Key drivers include Southampton's league position, squad depth relative to Premier League rivals, and their historical cup performance. The probability will adjust substantially based on injury announcements before the cup draws, managerial changes, and Southampton's results in upcoming league matches that signal team trajectory.

### Key factors

- Southampton's league position and recent form relative to historical cup competitors
- Squad depth and injury status compared to top-tier rivals typically favored in FA Cup betting markets
- Significant 21-point valuation gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests inconsistent assessments of either Southampton's capability or market-specific factors
- Historical precedent for non-top-flight teams or mid-table clubs winning the FA Cup in recent seasons
- Upcoming fixture results and any transfer activity before major cup rounds that could indicate momentum shifts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/facup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=facup

## License

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