# Fagiano Okayama vs. Avispa Fukuoka

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 20 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fagiano-okayama-vs-avispa-fukuoka
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:35:57.742Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $11 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd9e96a64db32554c4a5a6b4f41279fa3b90ac2b57d0c50103860e12e40733268 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-v-varen-nagasa-polymarket-0xc5b7c979a47371ab2fe9076a24d53fedea1c81e0862768652bd11f3a181a53a4 |
| Draw (V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-draw-v-varen-n-polymarket-0xc6a6ba02b3d1b36b00c6cf424f1a58db93bc43bfa8af4ece206bda2aeda4cf59 |
| Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xf65661563cdb776db46549f455dc77ef0c1cc89a0b39b126c4d7f3dfedc81cc3 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | 19¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0xa74e6079ee29906a5e317f14da648768eca1570ba620d2426cb68392a228fec0 |
| Fagiano Okayama (-1.5) | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x1b0ea45be3a63fcf68d481151d5534fdb085c83681909da802751bbb4ce0e439 |
| O/U 1.5 | 69¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x07a43571c8c72f5d007d7289f8df4242d39670b84a1a7a573ded0f340625b319 |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x716f7759f189926a037690bcd9e84cd003b779c66706262aebe0cdd7bd32c36d |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x39f38467e79479039a76669f40c9b492b970f73ab332ba1e7106facd5b703efc |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-1.5) | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0x33b10096dcf1eb8d78112d780a46d471b7af00b0ca9944e6c30712f4fccb116d |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xad3d5f61260454134827e38aed2f55c4b6ab297f062f27d0cbf63baa70c71797 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x2871c097f22fc551b5aad11d4f65a65bfe943e32a95e3503b19d3fabd76ac97c |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x72e6ac4ae0c7f7f7f27d9cc4852345a4cd3ebfed1beed0c4069b343da355411d |
| Fagiano Okayama | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-fagiano-okayam-polymarket-0x63a827ebe197128569d2af3ced9a787072488d1fbe24d4411dc0ad7d56698c8d |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x35fac179b3dbc0289e4000749ccf236afea6d0500b4671939c331fc0b221c35e |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-avispa-fukuoka-polymarket-0x805f95840ab0ed43172a3f2195f2cac152f0d6e12d3fe7028ca4dd91db5d893c |
| Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-draw-avispa-fukuok-polymarket-0xdf82b18e1af51be650c130d61a97a0967f0095aa7737b396db70d426bd6d7194 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC | 40¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-kyto-sanga-fc-polymarket-0xe6b9d547786ade247dba78e12c650c766fd6347c665d671ee8625c7ee0882783 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5) | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0xf35f621ce574603ed9be29ced4c295540e0fbdffa6f70e74c326153ace076fe2 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xce29520e287e87ae78f2af8b3d8b68c8165203f33c82d9dcc3379088b4204178 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) +4pp 28→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 +3pp 31→34¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fagiano-okayama-vs-avispa-fukuoka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fagiano-okayama-vs-avispa-fukuoka

## License

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