# Will Patea win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 3 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/falealili1
Updated: 2026-09-21T14:20:50.813Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-18

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuiloma Laneselota Lameko | 3¢ | −1pp | $771 | kalshi | /markets/will-tuiloma-laneselota-lameko-win-the-2026-faleal-kalshi-kxfalealili1-26sep18-tuil |
| Aperila Vaa Tiai | 80¢ | +55pp | $392 | kalshi | /markets/will-aperila-vaa-tiai-win-the-2026-falealili-1-by-kalshi-kxfalealili1-26sep18-seum |
| Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale | 3¢ | −16pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-auseugalelei-uiti-lagavale-win-the-2026-falea-kalshi-kxfalealili1-26sep18-ause |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 19 |
| 2026-09-18 | 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Aperila Vaa Tiai +55pp 26→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale −16pp 19→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects betting market expectations that Patea will win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election in Samoa at 12%, making Patea a significant underdog. The relatively low probability likely reflects limited market information about Patea's campaign organization, local support base, or political backing compared to frontrunner Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, who is priced at 29 cents. The by-election outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout in the Falealili 1 constituency, candidate campaign effectiveness, and local political dynamics in that specific electoral district. The election itself will resolve all uncertainty around these candidates, though the exact date and any campaign developments between now and voting should clarify which candidate has genuine on-the-ground support.

### Key factors

- Patea trades at 3 cents on Kalshi with only $14 in 24-hour volume, indicating minimal market liquidity and potentially thin information flowing to traders on this candidate's viability
- Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale is the clear market favorite at 29 cents, suggesting traders view this candidate as substantially stronger than Patea based on available information
- Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen trades at 6 cents with the highest volume ($150 in 24h), indicating this candidate receives more trader attention than Patea despite similar pricing
- The four-candidate spread (Auseugalelei, Fuaolemoli, Aperila, and others above Patea) suggests market participants have differentiated views on candidate strength rather than treating outcomes as equally likely
- Low overall volume across all contracts ($227 total 24h) suggests limited information discovery in the market and potential for probability shifts as new campaign or polling data emerges

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/falealili1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=falealili1
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.