# Will FanDuel App Downloads for August 2026 be above 100

> Closed. Last odds frozen 10 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fanduelapp
Updated: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-10-08

## Headline

- Leader: Above 30 at 58%
- Runner-up: Above 40 at 3%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 30 | 58¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fanduel-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxfanduelapp-26oct08-t30 |
| Above 40 | 3¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fanduel-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxfanduelapp-26oct08-t40 |
| Above 45 | 3¢ | −40pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fanduel-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxfanduelapp-26oct08-t45 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 30 | Above 40 | Above 45 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | 59 | 24 | 22 |
| 2026-09-09 | 59 | 12 | 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | 3 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that FanDuel app downloads will exceed 100 million during August 2026. The 52% probability for downloads above 60 million suggests modest confidence in mid-range performance, while only 5% probability above 100 million indicates significant skepticism about reaching very high download volumes. Download numbers typically fluctuate based on sports calendar events, marketing spend, new feature releases, and competitive activity in the mobile sports betting market. The resolution of this question depends on official download data reported through app store analytics by early September 2026, when August's complete metrics become available. Current market pricing suggests traders view 60-80 million downloads as the most likely range, with the much lower probability at 100+ implying either skepticism about FanDuel's growth trajectory or historical benchmarks showing such volumes are uncommon.

### Key factors

- Historical FanDuel August download data from 2024-2025 will establish baseline expectations for seasonal patterns
- Sports betting app download volume correlates with major sports events; NFL preseason and late summer betting activity affect August timing
- Competitive landscape includes DraftKings, BetMGM, and others launching promotions or new features that could shift market share
- App store algorithm changes and paid marketing campaigns directly influence download acquisition rates during any given month
- Data source reliability matters: app analytics platforms (Sensor Tower, App Annie) may differ in methodology or have reporting delays affecting final counts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fanduelapp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fanduelapp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.