# Will the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 be above 131.0

> Above 127.0 leads at 92%, runner-up 90% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/faofpi
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.345Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 127.0 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 128.0 at 90%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 127.0 | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t127.0 |
| Above 128.0 | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t128.0 |
| Above 129.0 | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t129.0 |
| Above 130.0 | 43¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t130.0 |
| Above 131.0 | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t131.0 |
| Above 132.0 | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t132.0 |
| Above 133.0 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t133.0 |
| Above 136.0 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t136.0 |
| Above 134.0 | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fao-food-price-index-for-june-2026-be-abo-kalshi-kxfaofpi-26jul03-t134.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 127.0 | Above 128.0 | Above 129.0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 95 | 93 | 81 |
| 2026-06-11 | 93 | 91 | 81 |
| 2026-06-18 | 93 | 91 | 81 |
| 2026-06-26 | 92 | 90 | 76 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 127.0 −11pp 93→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 130.0 −11pp 54→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 127.0 +10pp 82→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 131.0 −9pp 36→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 130.0 −6pp 60→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently estimate a 94% probability that the FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 will exceed 128.0, with declining confidence at higher thresholds (59% above 131.0, 6% above 136.0). This reflects market expectations about global commodity prices, supply-chain conditions, and weather impacts on key crops. The wide spread across price brackets suggests traders view modest increases as very likely, but sharper spikes as increasingly uncertain. The resolution depends on the FAO's actual May 2026 index release, which typically arrives weeks after month-end. Factors supporting higher readings include persistent input costs and potential supply disruptions; downward pressure could come from improved harvests or weakening demand. The relatively low trading volume on the highest brackets indicates limited consensus on extreme scenarios.

### Key factors

- FAO Food Price Index for May 2026 must be published by the FAO before any contract resolves; timing and data quality directly determine outcome
- Historical May 2026 index levels relative to April 2026 and the prior-year May 2025 baseline shape whether 128–131 thresholds are breached
- Commodity sub-indices (cereals, oils, meat, dairy, sugar) will be weighted equally in the composite; weakness in any major component reduces the overall index
- Weather events in spring 2026 affecting major crop regions and harvest expectations will influence market pricing through May
- Currency movements relative to USD and geopolitical supply disruptions during May 2026 can shift input cost inflation and trading patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/faofpi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=faofpi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.