# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Sep 1, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 12 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fauciiphone-27
Updated: 2026-08-11T19:20:51.650Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 48%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 28%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $637

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 48¢ | +19pp | $419 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfauciiphone-27-27jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 28¢ | +71pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfauciiphone-27-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 18¢ | +81pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfauciiphone-27-26sep01 |
| Before Aug 15, 2026 | 5¢ | +50pp | $203 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxfauciiphone-27-26aug15 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Sep 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | 46 | 28 | 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | 65 | 99 | 99 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Senate investigators will publicly release substantive communications or records from Anthony Fauci's iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before September 1, 2026. The 48% level suggests roughly even odds, driven by uncertainty about whether the Subcommittee will choose to publicize detailed materials versus maintaining confidentiality during ongoing investigations. The key catalyst is the September 1 deadline itself—whether the Subcommittee publishes findings or releases materials before that date. Market pricing may reflect broader political dynamics around the investigation's scope, timing constraints of the congressional calendar, and historical precedent for how Senate committees typically handle sensitive executive communications. Lower probability than a coin flip suggests market skepticism about public release in this specific timeframe.

### Key factors

- The September 1, 2026 deadline creates a hard temporal boundary; current date is August 11, leaving 21 days for potential releases
- Senate Permanent Subcommittee practices typically involve selective disclosure tied to formal reports rather than bulk document releases, which would work against the resolution criteria
- Definition of 'substantive communications or records' and 'publicly release' must be met by Source Agencies' own reporting—ambiguity about what counts as substantive could affect resolution
- Political pressure and congressional calendar considerations in August-September may accelerate or delay any disclosure decisions
- Prior congressional investigations show variable timelines for document releases; no clear precedent exists for this specific scenario

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fauciiphone-27
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fauciiphone-27
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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