# FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association - More Markets: FC Cajamarca (-1.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 15 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association-more-markets-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:55.403Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 42% / Polymarket 26% — 16pp spread
- 24h volume: $30K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | 69¢ | +5pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-the-natus-vincere-vs-g2-esport-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031315navig2-g2 |
| Dragon Ranger Gaming | 89¢ | −1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-dragon-ranger-gaming-win-the-dragon-ranger-ga-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may030700drgte-drg |
| Trace Esports | 11¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-trace-esports-win-the-dragon-ranger-gaming-vs-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may030700drgte-te |
| Natus Vincere | 30¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-natus-vincere-win-the-natus-vincere-vs-g2-esp-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031315navig2-navi |
| Team Envy | 16¢ | −1pp | $491 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-envy-win-the-team-envy-vs-g2-esports-val-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may032000nvg2-nv |
| UNO MILLE | 18¢ | −23pp | $372 | kalshi | /markets/will-uno-mille-win-the-uno-mille-vs-yawara-esports-kalshi-kxcs2game-26may031500unoyaw-uno |
| Viborg FF (-2.5) | 3¢ | −3pp | $317 | polymarket | /markets/fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff-more-markets-viborg-ff-polymarket-0x712d796588599cd8efe54febba9b05ff901c1f2b40228c893a3c3a6ef68337f9 |
| CS Cristal (-2.5) | 3¢ | −4pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-cs-cristal-polymarket-0xd13fc202d6d76cf340266a832e92de3e9fa469d965718c50218e8c92b8b530fc |
| Club Libertad (-2.5) | 3¢ | −5pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/ca-rosario-central-vs-club-libertad-more-markets-c-polymarket-0x361624a6355e101000836b0b062690d685a0dd4c42fedd688a7b7e5210f68104 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| G2 Esports | 82¢ | +3pp | $186 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-the-team-envy-vs-g2-esports-va-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may032000nvg2-g2 |
| JD Gaming | 46¢ | — | $168 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-gaming-win-the-jd-gaming-vs-top-esports-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060700jdgtes-jdg |
| Top Esports | 47¢ | — | $128 | kalshi | /markets/will-top-esports-win-the-jd-gaming-vs-top-esports-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060700jdgtes-tes |
| VfB eSports | 12¢ | — | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-vfb-esports-win-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-esports-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may061100g2nvfb-vfb |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +3pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/shandong-taishan-fc-vs-shanghai-shenhua-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x92fa6c618d32593fd64e01106ddf8102f987fe612e1762d2e78e0d9a38f99a3a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 47 |
| 2026-05-01 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · UNO MILLE −23pp 56→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · G2 Esports +13pp 67→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · G2 Esports +5pp 63→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Club Libertad (-2.5) −5pp 11→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · G2 Esports +4pp 59→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 33% probability means markets estimate roughly a one-in-three chance that FC Cajamarca wins by 2 or more goals against Sport Boys Association. This reflects moderate skepticism about a decisive home victory, likely driven by Sport Boys' defensive capability and historical head-to-head performance. The main catalyst is the match itself, which will definitively resolve whether Cajamarca achieves the required margin. Upward pressure on this probability would come from pre-match team news favoring Cajamarca (injuries to Sport Boys' key defenders, lineup changes), while downward pressure would come from evidence of Cajamarca's attacking struggles or Sport Boys' recent strong form. The current 1-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests modest disagreement across venues, though the 18 contracts on Polymarket provide substantially more liquidity than the 2 on Kalshi.

### Key factors

- FC Cajamarca's home-field record and goal-scoring average in recent matches versus Sport Boys' away defensive performance
- Sport Boys Association's injury status and recent lineup changes heading into match day
- Historical head-to-head results between these teams, particularly margin-of-victory patterns
- Current league standings and playoff implications that might affect team motivation or tactical approach
- Polymarket's 18-contract depth versus Kalshi's 2 contracts, indicating concentration risk in price discovery

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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