# FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 15 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:20:34.450Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 41% / Polymarket 44% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | 68¢ | +5pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-the-natus-vincere-vs-g2-esport-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031315navig2-g2 |
| Natus Vincere | 30¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-natus-vincere-win-the-natus-vincere-vs-g2-esp-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031315navig2-navi |
| Team Envy | 18¢ | −1pp | $962 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-envy-win-the-team-envy-vs-g2-esports-val-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may032000nvg2-nv |
| Otakar Esports | 33¢ | +1pp | $845 | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-the-ucam-esports-club-vs-o-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ota |
| UNO MILLE | 14¢ | −23pp | $473 | kalshi | /markets/will-uno-mille-win-the-uno-mille-vs-yawara-esports-kalshi-kxcs2game-26may031500unoyaw-uno |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 32¢ | −1pp | $206 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-2-polymarket-0x5283a21a15ec521f4337c8e4f501631b4d19582611acba8a1b641466f279dc97 |
| Top Esports | 47¢ | — | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-top-esports-win-the-jd-gaming-vs-top-esports-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060700jdgtes-tes |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| G2 Esports | 82¢ | +3pp | $186 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-the-team-envy-vs-g2-esports-va-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may032000nvg2-g2 |
| JD Gaming | 48¢ | — | $171 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-gaming-win-the-jd-gaming-vs-top-esports-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060700jdgtes-jdg |
| VfB eSports | 12¢ | — | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-vfb-esports-win-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-esports-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may061100g2nvfb-vfb |
| T1 Academy | 79¢ | +47pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-t1-academy-win-the-hanwha-life-esports-challe-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040500hlet1a-t1a |
| O/U 2.5 | 67¢ | +3pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/shandong-taishan-fc-vs-shanghai-shenhua-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x92fa6c618d32593fd64e01106ddf8102f987fe612e1762d2e78e0d9a38f99a3a |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Alex vs. ARod | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-vs-arod-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osdse-ale |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 29 |
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · T1 Academy +47pp 30→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · UNO MILLE −23pp 56→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · T1 Academy +15pp 15→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · G2 Esports +13pp 67→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Otakar Esports +8pp 5→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that additional wagering markets will be created for the FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association match. At 33%, traders see moderate likelihood of expanded market offerings beyond what currently exists. The probability reflects typical patterns for Peruvian football matches: major platform operators sometimes add supplementary markets (spreads, totals, player props) when initial volume justifies the infrastructure investment, while lower-profile matchups often remain limited to basic match outcomes. The primary drivers are the initial trading volume on existing markets and whether either team carries sufficient betting interest to warrant deeper market coverage. Key resolution depends on platform operators' decisions during the pre-match period, typically 24-48 hours before kickoff. Divergence between Polymarket (33%) and Kalshi (32%) suggests minor disagreement, though the minimal gap indicates broad consensus around the mid-range probability.

### Key factors

- Current 24-hour trading volume across primary markets will determine if platforms view the match as sufficiently liquid to justify additional market creation
- The tier and historical trading activity of both FC Cajamarca and Sport Boys Association in their respective leagues influences operator investment decisions
- Platform coverage patterns show Peruvian football typically receives limited market expansion unless one team has outsized regional or betting community interest
- Time-to-kickoff timing and competing sporting events on the match date affect whether operators allocate resources to supplementary markets
- Historical precedent: similar-tier Peruvian football matches create expanded markets in approximately 30-35% of cases based on platform data

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association-more-markets

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