# FC Cajamarca vs. Sport Boys Association

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 14 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:20:40.671Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G2 Esports | 68¢ | +5pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-the-natus-vincere-vs-g2-esport-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031315navig2-g2 |
| Natus Vincere | 30¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-natus-vincere-win-the-natus-vincere-vs-g2-esp-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031315navig2-navi |
| Team Envy | 18¢ | −1pp | $962 | kalshi | /markets/will-team-envy-win-the-team-envy-vs-g2-esports-val-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may032000nvg2-nv |
| Otakar Esports | 33¢ | +1pp | $845 | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-the-ucam-esports-club-vs-o-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ota |
| UNO MILLE | 14¢ | −23pp | $473 | kalshi | /markets/will-uno-mille-win-the-uno-mille-vs-yawara-esports-kalshi-kxcs2game-26may031500unoyaw-uno |
| Yawara Esports | 83¢ | +4pp | $217 | kalshi | /markets/will-yawara-esports-win-the-uno-mille-vs-yawara-es-kalshi-kxcs2game-26may031500unoyaw-yaw |
| Top Esports | 47¢ | — | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-top-esports-win-the-jd-gaming-vs-top-esports-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060700jdgtes-tes |
| G2 Esports | 82¢ | +3pp | $186 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-the-team-envy-vs-g2-esports-va-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may032000nvg2-g2 |
| JD Gaming | 48¢ | — | $171 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-gaming-win-the-jd-gaming-vs-top-esports-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may060700jdgtes-jdg |
| VfB eSports | 12¢ | — | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-vfb-esports-win-the-g2-nord-vs-vfb-esports-le-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may061100g2nvfb-vfb |
| T1 Academy | 79¢ | +47pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-t1-academy-win-the-hanwha-life-esports-challe-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040500hlet1a-t1a |
| Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 19¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-hanwha-life-esports-challengers-win-the-hanwh-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may040500hlet1a-hle |
| Natus Vincere | 35¢ | −1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-natus-vincere-win-map-2-in-the-natus-vincere-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031315navig2-2-navi |
| Alex vs. ARod | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-vs-arod-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osdse-ale |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 29 |
| 2026-05-01 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · T1 Academy +47pp 30→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · UNO MILLE −23pp 56→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · T1 Academy +15pp 15→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · G2 Esports +13pp 67→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Otakar Esports +8pp 5→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's expectation that Sport Boys Association will win their upcoming match against FC Cajamarca in Peruvian football. The 23 percentage point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders disagree on how to weigh available information about team form, head-to-head records, or recent performance metrics. Resolution depends on the match outcome, which will be determined by actual play. Factors influencing the current 37% probability include relative league standing, recent match results, injury status, and home-field advantage. The match result will be verified through official league records once completed, eliminating uncertainty entirely.

### Key factors

- Relative league positions and current-season point totals for both clubs as of late April 2026
- Head-to-head historical performance between FC Cajamarca and Sport Boys Association in recent seasons
- Recent form: goals scored/conceded and results in the last 5-10 matches for each team
- Home-field advantage if the match is being played at a specific venue
- Player availability and confirmed injuries or suspensions affecting either squad

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-cajamarca-vs-sport-boys-association

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