# FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake

> FC Dallas leads at 44%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-dallas-vs-real-salt-lake
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.499Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: FC Dallas at 44%
- Runner-up: Real Salt Lake at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $116

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 44¢ | — | $36 | polymarket | /markets/fc-dallas-vs-real-salt-lake-fc-dallas-polymarket-0xe8426733c4547d941fd2fd82bfcb13da718fd8612988f1b7c3cb27ff69bfbf8b |
| Real Salt Lake | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-dallas-vs-real-salt-lake-real-salt-lake-polymarket-0x7b98cddd0caa64cac1f5d9ff61233e6f6b7f44d324e617371ff98cc482c48d8f |
| Draw (FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake) | 26¢ | — | $80 | polymarket | /markets/fc-dallas-vs-real-salt-lake-draw-fc-dallas-vs-real-polymarket-0x2c3aa7c3332d38683bc557cdb8a990b7966b7aa41c6987cda75ee2b58ab532ba |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Dallas | Real Salt Lake | Draw (FC Dallas vs. Real Salt Lake) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | — | 32 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 44 | — | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 26 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 31% probability reflects market expectations that Real Salt Lake will win this matchup. This implies roughly a 2-to-1 odds in favor of FC Dallas or a draw combined against a Real Salt Lake victory. The current pricing likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. The market would shift upward for Real Salt Lake if FC Dallas suffers key injuries or enters a losing streak, and downward if Real Salt Lake faces roster disruptions or poor recent results. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, which resolves all uncertainty around this particular fixture.

### Key factors

- Recent win-loss records for both clubs in the current MLS season, as losing streaks or momentum typically correlate with market repricing
- Availability of star players or confirmed injury reports for either team in the days before the match
- Historical head-to-head performance between FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake over the past 1-2 seasons
- Home-field advantage status and typical performance differential for the hosting team
- Market trading volume and contract settlement history, as low volume ($0 24h) may indicate uncertainty or limited liquidity in pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-dallas-vs-real-salt-lake
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-dallas-vs-real-salt-lake

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