# FC Gifu vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-gifu-vs-hokkaid-consadole-sapporo
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:13.726Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ho-polymarket-0x138f6b57280ad59d6d75bfceb6ba63aa3cc369d718f275c28f6cb995fb9b2b05 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3d911221648823c1087df22eb6d2d5fc2ee0ef213d51afeb1b4193a777432eaf |
| Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-dr-polymarket-0xdd765cef72c5da3ca348fa0d7b0ee6f53146c1e310a0bba3ddd4e798385886d6 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0xcca25a65e8448fbb4aa8c06f0ca6fbf0c7b3cb6060a43dd0414d69b32b1fc845 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro | 37¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ac-polymarket-0x9bd3d86b848be1f15a9812fda9adb892b145019a0737cefda65ecf985ad8a2f1 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3db89e322cf7de910df0fae46ada35f0f46cb9d277932a373291b408016c85f4 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5) | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x50d1b1bda87e6cd16b3ed4f8e35650399bc8f3d463ed3272a8f24db36584dd2f |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x0f2b3ba75971abcde502d3fa8eeb0dbbbce4901c67fafb3cdf002aa3f5049e2a |
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2e6bb7cb8f323d978a8fadf561c1496a0f6d8298d2c6efa5321b54bee0705304 |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x12cb79b9213eccdd8f35d1135073dd17e5e20273e2306aeb96b44cccd091e2fd |
| O/U 3.5 | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x49ed80a3b9531eea817bc20384d20ac3eae558d647ba1b09354789e33b33fb98 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2d6f526ac4b489f0fa76b549ed100f2a4ef6c42208eb1c75fe4a73494f46eee5 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5) | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-matsum-polymarket-0x1852d18e0a0dafb61e1e56b56bbf939e15f90a9fda5e851a5b6fd6dee03e1f72 |
| Winner: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/j2-league-winner-hokkaido-consadole-sapporo-polymarket-0x8df67098a5b1321e7fa57f8a3c097cc0bdd063c222c464c1a638df73b1ec1573 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-matsum-polymarket-0x17df3fdd9ae468ca339d552365e8b3fcb832dc058c848ee984ec609927e93a78 |
| FC Gifu | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-fc-gifu-polymarket-0x55f8ff808e04ba5a3a73dde0691562771bcb3cb8fbe41b84e490bec674e9ccff |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x3a25257752ae203ce7e44aaf9f83b67e7af6cee3a7fff4ce75b267ea89272e6c |
| FC Gifu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-fc-gif-polymarket-0x357eb004b00c13faa2a3d4747cdaf5e3560c72bd526a9fd60c94b0b22de95b1a |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x0aa1722974d0d761f7018efffe974ca6abd0209d5e331d478e2af3d9fc3d3ef6 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xe897e50d7baaa8c1d5c4fd529fcb12245c25e1169e9f4b010bcb870b0cb145d0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 50 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · AC Nagano Parceiro −11pp 40→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score +5pp 50→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Gifu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 50% probability reflects even odds for a matchup between FC Gifu and Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo in what appears to be a Japanese league fixture. The even split suggests neither team has clear historical or recent form advantages that traders are pricing in, or that insufficient data exists to differentiate them. The probability would move if recent performance data changes—such as injury reports, league standings shifts, or head-to-head historical patterns—indicating one team has structural advantage. The match itself, when scheduled, will be the primary uncertainty resolver, though pre-match trading activity may reflect team lineups, weather conditions, or momentum shifts in the days leading up to kickoff. Limited trading volume on related markets ($0 across top contracts in the past 24 hours) suggests minimal liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads, meaning small position sizes or new information could meaningfully shift the probability.

### Key factors

- Current league standings and recent form of both FC Gifu and Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (3-5 most recent matches)
- Historical head-to-head record between the two teams, if sufficient data exists
- Announced team lineups, injuries to key players, or suspensions affecting either squad
- Weather conditions and venue details (if home-field advantage or weather impacts are material factors)
- Trading volume and spread dynamics on related markets, indicating whether 50% reflects true uncertainty or illiquidity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-gifu-vs-hokkaid-consadole-sapporo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-gifu-vs-hokkaid-consadole-sapporo

## License

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