# FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC

> FC Gifu leads at 44%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:52.165Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: FC Gifu at 44%
- Runner-up: Matsumoto Yamaga FC at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Gifu | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-fc-gifu-polymarket-0x55f8ff808e04ba5a3a73dde0691562771bcb3cb8fbe41b84e490bec674e9ccff |
| Matsumoto Yamaga FC | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-polymarket-0x992a3f1a9f252274f4df1be65647a7e0f96a20114685b4e80df541e7f9623909 |
| Draw (FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC) | 35¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc-draw-fc-gifu-vs-mat-polymarket-0x6ff136898939c10a3526f101a09d1d0d920a1d45ee4c0a4e7aff395af71c16a3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Gifu | Matsumoto Yamaga FC | Draw (FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 38 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 | 40 | 39 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents a 39% probability that FC Gifu will win their match against Matsumoto Yamaga FC, based on pricing from prediction markets. The current assessment reflects competitive positioning between two J2 League teams, with the favorite (Matsumoto) implied at roughly 37% and other outcomes capturing draws or remaining uncertainty. The probability would shift if recent team form, injury updates, or head-to-head records become available closer to match day. The match itself serves as the primary resolution catalyst, determining which team claims victory. Related market contracts suggest modest goal expectations (28¢ on over 4.5 total goals) and a 47¢ price on both teams scoring, indicating traders expect a relatively tight, defensive contest rather than a high-scoring affair.

### Key factors

- FC Gifu's home/away record and recent win percentage in J2 League fixtures
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC's current league position and goal differential relative to Gifu
- Head-to-head historical performance between these teams in prior seasons
- Injury or suspension status of key attacking or defensive players for either side
- Market depth and trading volume on these contracts remains minimal ($0 24h volume), suggesting limited consensus and potential for repricing on new information

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-gifu-vs-matsumoto-yamaga-fc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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