# FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 20 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-jurez-vs-atltico-san-luis
Updated: 2026-05-03T11:35:15.115Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 33% / Polymarket 29% — 4pp spread
- 24h volume: $543

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 | 39¢ | −21pp | $321 | kalshi | /markets/will-robelis-despaigne-win-the-junior-dos-santos-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may16dosdes-des1 |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 26¢ | — | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-junior-dos-santos-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may16dosdes-other |
| Ulsan HD FC | 36¢ | +2pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-ulsan-hd-fc-polymarket-0x7f5e73a1e1d8ef935c37b02bfa22007d8fdbfefe92f85d66f2fffcb07a73c050 |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC | 47¢ | +2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-wuhan-san-z-polymarket-0x13b64b20aec5484de695c175fc83653c6671149e66c58a995f23b5be8c114305 |
| Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) | 28¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-draw-gimcheon-sa-polymarket-0xce05614d03ca739ac993c8183c252089449df98b1a94e557415259d5e12facdf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $9 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x6bf7a43e176741b749890f4c3a5d781f0da3fb7ef5bc2476a1494d53c83df057 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-both-teams-t-polymarket-0x7c53e9160423d5c01b9ed330530bee3f28bbc550a2c0363064fad9db49f21f69 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xbdae7dda47bdc8a73d6f94678f92dcf81f0105c1e960b850b519bee73c728701 |
| Kataller Toyama (-1.5) | 37¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kataller-toyama-vs-kamatamare-sanuki-more-markets-polymarket-0xa18b4aeaa1b53e7d32e9fb7c48098547da2808cc3e72e8a48824b4fd2cd09f97 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) | 16¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x71f745c092060c8f80e06e6bed5141039827ad2a3fb79dfbb6322455bd9b44e7 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5) | 9¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x559461c25f175b01a1cbf6e4b72940b22f539eaf75dd59ecaca75722a2fd3557 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x5735da3e7d2a090ad05c030f77efb55ebc2288982ec45be75358f0e57d648821 |
| O/U 4.5 | 15¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xd128a438d67165805df816880348c9da14f4a48c449293d0a25e97f0e23233d7 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xd92e3c6facd7cfe3772dc6c05c64835117ff536547aa381a46e39188f1b328a1 |
| O/U 4.5 | 6¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0xc4dd638c0f758186525a1818baef4867425fbdbb21903fa3909871ea5fac8eeb |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x13712fed686d2b8c9fb4a3cfb1024a67967a412094efa5871638bff56c6025b6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x09142591c531b9321c5237ee59cfad2011a123a0a3bad39becc20ffa835755b9 |
| CD Cuenca (-2.5) | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0x0ba8c8a71abb0ec2119bcb26712fd510596ad0b5897db11c0828c96e0f9aaa51 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x65835d9cb539cf33b6489619365554af29a588a1cee0ddd74e727d6981c3d417 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 −21pp 42→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) −9pp 38→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score −4pp 58→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kataller Toyama (-1.5) +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-jurez-vs-atltico-san-luis
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-jurez-vs-atltico-san-luis

## License

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