# FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos

> FC Machida Zelvia leads at 54%, runner-up 26% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:40.676Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: FC Machida Zelvia at 54%
- Runner-up: Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos) at 26%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Machida Zelvia | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-fc-machida-polymarket-0xfadb01e7f045fbe7275e9fa50a8a50a31649704b88049a32a0cb014cb47063e0 |
| Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos) | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-draw-fc-mac-polymarket-0xe986c183f53966656b15fd4edb7ac990287d87cd2822e35deb32ec16ee32e0f1 |
| Yokohama F·Marinos | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-yokohama-fm-polymarket-0x35d63d619718635411ea71138527c89ab9cb847612e753f2d780ad7aab168c83 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Machida Zelvia | Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos) | Yokohama F·Marinos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | 33 | 35 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | 33 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 | 32 | 33 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects market expectations that Yokohama F·Marinos will win the upcoming match against FC Machida Zelvia. The market shows a narrow spread between top outcomes, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than a dominant favorite. Yokohama's current form, recent head-to-head results, and home/away status would be primary drivers of movement in either direction. The probability would shift upward if Yokohama demonstrates consistent offensive performance or if Machida enters the match with key injuries. The match itself serves as the definitive resolution event—there is no waiting for delayed announcements or interpretive rulings. Limited trading volume (zero 24-hour volume on Polymarket) suggests thin liquidity, meaning new information or late-game bets could create price movement that doesn't necessarily reflect underlying fundamentals.

### Key factors

- Yokohama F·Marinos' goal differential and recent match outcomes in the current season compared to Machida Zelvia's defensive record
- Availability of key attacking and defensive players for both teams heading into match day, including injury reports released closer to kickoff
- Head-to-head historical performance between these specific clubs in recent seasons
- Yokohama's home/away record and whether the match is played at their home ground or neutral venue
- Trading volume on prediction markets remains at zero in 24 hours, indicating minimal consensus-building or information arbitrage among active traders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos

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