# FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF

> FC Midtjylland leads at 62%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:56.952Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-04

## Headline

- Leader: FC Midtjylland at 62%
- Runner-up: Draw (FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF) at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff-fc-midtjylland-polymarket-0xcd9aecc61cba81b649ec4cf69a50d7df7e5069a00af871541f5f4e5968d8f822 |
| Draw (FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF) | 21¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff-draw-fc-midtjylland-vs-polymarket-0xd70114f69f5cd18d2d0d567dd3f36e1d2d4805bffc6286e27ce817d1502180ee |
| Viborg FF | 17¢ | ±0 | $6 | polymarket | /markets/fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff-viborg-ff-polymarket-0x1d6b96228c62394f3769288371a574cad1e2cf4d66e9135f882646b99b1ac161 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Midtjylland | Draw (FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF) | Viborg FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 21 | 17 |
| 2026-05-01 | 61 | — | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 61 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects market expectations that FC Midtjylland will win an upcoming match against Viborg FF. The probability sits at the intersection of two major betting venues with a modest 6-percentage-point gap, suggesting moderate disagreement about Midtjylland's chances. Recent form, head-to-head records, and squad composition typically drive such match probabilities in Danish football. The actual match outcome will resolve this uncertainty, making pre-match team news and lineup confirmations the primary catalysts that could shift the probability higher or lower before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Polymarket contracts price Midtjylland's win probability at approximately 36%, while Kalshi averages 30%, indicating venue-level divergence in assessment
- The spread contract (-2.5 for Viborg) trading at 5¢ suggests low confidence in Viborg covering, implying most liquidity favors closer margins or Midtjylland outright
- Kalshi's Midtjylland winner contract at 59¢ reflects majority expectation of a Midtjylland victory, contradicting the 35% aggregate figure and signaling potential pricing inconsistency
- Total 24-hour volume concentrates heavily on the Midtjylland winner Kalshi contract ($152), indicating thin liquidity on Viborg-favorable outcomes across venues
- Very low volume on long-tailed contracts (O/U 3.5, direct Viborg at Polymarket) suggests limited market depth for correlated outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff

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