# FC Mito Holly Hock vs. FC Machida Zelvia - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-fc-machida-zelvia-more-markets-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:24.903Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0xd385a34c7caf9fbdeb78e6a6a1fbf2a3bb9d25bb3581d7a15f5a72c5cb8717a7 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock | 17¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-fc-mito-holl-polymarket-0x7c2edc081c32d05d1211b6e4733f57cf9f4993b2aff68bc1771396191ccb941e |
| Both Teams to Score | 46¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x2f00d8efde341336cc233f5c4175ddbcbe2d4044b1fc9bcc51e9a01bd4892029 |
| Kashima Antlers (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0xe7a530fa7e188edc8caeb8d3e54f96180f11560978d2b034e251dc175cbe9059 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5) | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x317f8e4aa158d4dce5c31be35a3b0448d3b55f1f6059334d10dbcd431518e834 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x016905fd905ab6ebd041201e664fb909026be7f8d9f37567497caa7e2333b20d |
| Kashima Antlers (-2.5) | 14¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x6b096c2df5914dbbc26c254de76cb2bc7898d91c9fe76d92fc6bf32a7a673965 |
| O/U 3.5 | 25¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x0810840cd496f74e46af48757e2488c91261f35690040c1d2248f26ca3d55e13 |
| Kashima Antlers | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-kashima-antl-polymarket-0xda16f5f99ab000e90be082a66bf91d4760d73eea2dac3b46cced139158573b65 |
| Draw (Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock) | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-draw-kashima-polymarket-0x701ae45ef836a011a58e97f75432565c982eabf04e31b4aaa37c9e77492adfa5 |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x9a04eb7c5d4b3411c6443be32b0e6c6584cf135d0c4995fc06f4e35889dcc058 |
| O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashima-antlers-vs-fc-mito-holly-hock-more-markets-polymarket-0x0020fda47604a2d66ffa8e2f9dfaa9a358f4a179d9375a06adca1a6efb5bfde4 |
| FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) | 28¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0xeace316b41b9dae690248b38ddfa3b76f12e3376670c4810d39cc85d331b0b5c |
| FC Machida Zelvia | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-fc-machida-polymarket-0xfadb01e7f045fbe7275e9fa50a8a50a31649704b88049a32a0cb014cb47063e0 |
| O/U 1.5 | 77¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x55c4f82164c5327e31ce158ae1f097ead55f59a744f11cef1a7e37c9cad3292a |
| Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x19e3cd31b809bdaf4f5af7fa60b75d8615b7f166168caad3b2956db879248204 |
| Yokohama F·Marinos | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-yokohama-fm-polymarket-0x35d63d619718635411ea71138527c89ab9cb847612e753f2d780ad7aab168c83 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x59499bef9849261e4b9a1ed19b402cdaad03979d63037448d867f53f325f4dcd |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x3f4aee4f0bd42c560dbc0bd1ce71f7af824e265312731cf81bb2cbc6191b054d |
| FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0xbe04137a61065209207d8e048618cc97dc1587c58ade0a2218ede2adaf8b65c7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Kashima Antlers (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5) +3pp 32→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) +3pp 32→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 31% probability that FC Mito Holly Hock will win by more than 1.5 goals against FC Machida Zelvia. The low probability suggests bookmakers and traders assess Mito Holly Hock as unlikely to achieve a large margin of victory, despite the mixed signals from related markets showing roughly 24-46% implied probabilities for outright Mito Holly Hock wins. The current level reflects that close matches or Machida Zelvia victories are considered more likely outcomes. The resolution depends on the match result, which will occur on the scheduled date. Movement in this market would depend on team form leading up to kickoff, injury reports, and historical head-to-head performance in this specific spread range.

### Key factors

- Outright Mito Holly Hock win probability is priced around 24%, making a 1.5+ goal margin victory a subset requiring both victory and significant goal differential
- Related over/under 2.5 goals contract at 48¢ suggests markets expect this to be a relatively low-scoring match, constraining large margin outcomes
- Machida Zelvia win probability is priced around 46%, indicating the favorite designation; a win of any margin by Zelvia would eliminate the -1.5 Mito Holly Hock outcome
- No active trading volume on the -2.5 Mito Holly Hock contract (0 vol) and minimal volume on most related markets suggests limited liquidity and possible sharp disagreement on precise probabilities
- The 2 percentage point spread between Kalshi (29%) and Polymarket (31%) is modest, indicating general market consensus despite different contract structures

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-fc-machida-zelvia-more-markets-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-fc-machida-zelvia-more-markets-fc

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