# FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds - More Markets: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-fc
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:20:14.662Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5) at 10%
- Runner-up: FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5) at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $31

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5) | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-mark-polymarket-0x9dab318f8251701b33f75285e6f1a01a2df69dfc06842f2abf79b5db42af9768 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5) | 3¢ | −9pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-mark-polymarket-0x6c27da4dae151213ae21b9a7256598f56c52eccaf368f7d845444253961b2770 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5) | FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 22 | 15 |
| 2026-05-07 | 11 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · FC Mito Holly Hock (-1.5) −11pp 22→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · FC Mito Holly Hock (-2.5) −9pp 15→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 33% probability that FC Mito Holly Hock will defeat Urawa Red Diamonds by at least 1.5 goals or more. The probability suggests Urawa is favored, though the spread is relatively tight in market terms. Current pricing reflects historical matchup dynamics, recent team form, and relative league standing between a mid-table club and a stronger opponent. The main factors influencing this price are team injury status, recent performance streaks, and head-to-head historical results. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome, with the final score determining whether Holly Hock covers the -1.5 spread. Very low trading volume suggests limited market liquidity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- FC Mito Holly Hock's current league position and recent win/loss record compared to Urawa Red Diamonds
- Key player availability or injury status for either team leading into the match
- Historical head-to-head performance between these clubs, particularly results in similar league conditions
- Urawa's defensive record this season versus Holly Hock's offensive output over recent matches
- Match location (home/away advantage) and any recent momentum shifts in either team's performance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-fc

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