# FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds

> Urawa Red Diamonds leads at 44%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:10.532Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: Urawa Red Diamonds at 44%
- Runner-up: Draw (FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 44¢ | −8pp | $828 | polymarket | /markets/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-urawa-red-polymarket-0x34a9afd42637558d08176b78a1f19aa308c37adfa7776d5a401c12ef7438ce2e |
| Draw (FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | 30¢ | ±0 | $320 | polymarket | /markets/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-draw-fc-m-polymarket-0x6f687527ba324ddd09c0fff76b823904d07fa3caaffccf224f259c718fce6bc7 |
| FC Mito Holly Hock | 28¢ | −12pp | $394 | polymarket | /markets/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-fc-mito-h-polymarket-0xb8c6408866818e0aedd00a3d5cbba9383d21ff0b3f40ae7d8af0d2070dfbb0ea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Urawa Red Diamonds | Draw (FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | FC Mito Holly Hock |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 49 | 32 | 42 |
| 2026-05-07 | 41 | 29 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 29 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · FC Mito Holly Hock −12pp 42→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Urawa Red Diamonds −8pp 49→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) −3pp 32→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 43% probability for Urawa Red Diamonds indicates traders view them as the most likely winner in this matchup against FC Mito Holly Hock, though outcomes remain fairly competitive with a 29% draw probability and 28% for FC Mito Holly Hock. Urawa Red Diamonds' higher rating likely reflects their league standing, recent form, or head-to-head historical advantage. The market is relatively balanced given the three-way nature of soccer outcomes—no single result is heavily favored. The match result will fully resolve the contracts, with all probability mass shifting to the winning outcome once the game concludes. Key factors affecting these prices include recent team performance metrics, injury status, home/away advantage, and comparative squad strength in the J-League context.

### Key factors

- Urawa Red Diamonds' current league position and recent win-loss record versus FC Mito Holly Hock's recent performance
- Home/away status: whether this match is at a neutral venue, Urawa's Saitama Stadium, or FC Mito Holly Hock's home ground
- Head-to-head historical results and goal differential in prior meetings between these two teams
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either squad ahead of the scheduled match
- Overall squad strength comparison and season trajectory for both teams in the current J-League season

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-mito-holly-hock-vs-urawa-red-diamonds

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