# FC Ryūkyū vs. Kagoshima United FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-ryky-vs-kagoshima-united-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:51:01.159Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $598

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 48¢ | +1pp | $298 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) | 27¢ | ±0 | $7 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-draw-united-states-vs-pa-polymarket-0x3774cdf17e49143a4f6e10812df8b06113731493842fccc52dea045a1744ae61 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc65258b729eb812ed035c1f0a9f1f8908d226d1e1f9deb24b21d1857e9536bb8 |
| Kagoshima United FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0x9d9d399d5805b6d04d783b7e23110f9c3a564d25f53a1d111bb05c7ca2ee1252 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) | 32¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0xf7b2d59df5ec45e91e68eff046f5394e0a02d136238fb7ff8cf8b358cd3742fa |
| Ōita Trinita (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x181e3424ee0ee74f7515f00ded017f0f7b354f423316a80b2d2a69c69ab5d370 |
| O/U 1.5 | 60¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc0ca93277e47ebfeac4868ad303dfb8d5487eab193fc355d227ffd9279f526cd |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0xe0cdd90db277e87907e88ff3672e492d88afe0c187c708157a5d9fb951da7a6d |
| Draw (Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-draw-kagoshima-polymarket-0xf07ff2d11763d1fadfea139e1470687ff13bd1e03d9f30fe65ff4009230b3a60 |
| Ōita Trinita (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x88fc7b7ae3b2ecf42ec2828e86c4701f3039aaadb163445ff377480f84be35d4 |
| Kagoshima United FC | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-kagoshima-unite-polymarket-0x915eb3ae12983ea65de0a0af4e6c04fff81685b5496e8409fc6ea41b8742ea84 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x439e354b22d6e164f4d31f50551836df502e9225f10f7da1eb62ecd6538682f7 |
| Ōita Trinita | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-ita-trinita-polymarket-0x8ff73c4b6ca82f1054bb138b2898844ffd8975bdd880f1390f5dac0d722e3d38 |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-tegeva-polymarket-0xeba8015dbf05cbf409b2c78e871f712f738975cbbdc238bd4f878afdd4a7f645 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x2274e1938e218342db6bad0b9705832113b19ae38704593b94d6c15ae222b6f2 |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xa5ce223bf8232c5c2f8d4aae04ac65431b401310234dea268d56354b4bec337e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 48 |
| 2026-05-01 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kagoshima United FC (-2.5) +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ōita Trinita (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5) +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Incheon United FC −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-ryky-vs-kagoshima-united-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-ryky-vs-kagoshima-united-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.