# FC Seoul vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 19 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-seoul-vs-gimcheon-sangmu-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:11.997Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-20

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 31% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $251

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 56¢ | +5pp | $88 | polymarket | /markets/fc-seoul-vs-fc-anyang-fc-seoul-polymarket-0x83fd307f0f8ee4dd6da72fd204a4c072d79a3d752ea84d2bd9228021e1016ea6 |
| Ulsan HD FC | 36¢ | +2pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-ulsan-hd-fc-polymarket-0x7f5e73a1e1d8ef935c37b02bfa22007d8fdbfefe92f85d66f2fffcb07a73c050 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x958037183bbbe9c19389945a89a0123d13bd75f0cbc4bf48a9c88a4f8669d5e6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | −2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc2ca5022ecefa00d5fdb377dcf1eba34cb1973d86b75b22e40122dd29ca651b6 |
| Draw (FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang) | 26¢ | −1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/fc-seoul-vs-fc-anyang-draw-fc-seoul-vs-fc-anyang-polymarket-0x2238da8b647a5fa579969c85e975871969923363b5eb17b85845190746729582 |
| Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) | 28¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-draw-gimcheon-sa-polymarket-0xce05614d03ca739ac993c8183c252089449df98b1a94e557415259d5e12facdf |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x6bf7a43e176741b749890f4c3a5d781f0da3fb7ef5bc2476a1494d53c83df057 |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xf3ccec98aeb6344ece6adadce36427c489c59a413486e525a4b9023749b79b09 |
| Ulsan HD FC (-2.5) | 5¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-uls-polymarket-0x468b9803cded8b468608aba0be9302d4a9600f32853e62e4522cad9451855e2f |
| O/U 3.5 | 25¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x549c4a97211a25b26253c9db93c77de3b98a4a66ef4d02600adda6e0f5ca6600 |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5) | 14¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-gim-polymarket-0xcd6e1510f447a1f0ba07a0e99153075bb607b79da6f84b452c753ef4ad0b79ca |
| Ulsan HD FC (-1.5) | 14¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-uls-polymarket-0x23088dff136de91533ed17ab39f8707f8cd20755d34b4c84ea6bbad37cff3169 |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5) | 5¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-gim-polymarket-0x6d870aef7877b3c939278596272a6768ebfb6aaa0242da17f9ab468d58c698af |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-gimcheon-sangmu-polymarket-0x24402c66279d4c6af70519b7aacf7d2621ac15bc7c7e8357fe3f57e5aa071a29 |
| O/U 1.5 | 71¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-seoul-vs-fc-anyang-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x89cfce598695c7ed44795b0339921b8aea79461dd382ef5a305c2a435462d97c |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-seoul-vs-fc-anyang-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x486d108e3eba44ead6b95f1fdd51f746ad31f9b4985a518771e30762002beda9 |
| FC Seoul (-2.5) | 11¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-seoul-vs-fc-anyang-more-markets-fc-seoul-25-polymarket-0x5631346af4ffc8c21b4da628974402f523670bca565438b0318227e0b3694cc0 |
| Tie | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-vs-ulsan-hd-winner-tie-kalshi-kxkleaguegame-26may05gisuls-tie |
| Gimcheon Sangmu | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-vs-ulsan-hd-winner-gimcheon-sangmu-kalshi-kxkleaguegame-26may05gisuls-gis |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Ulsan HD FC (-2.5) −24pp 37→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5) −22pp 35→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Ulsan HD FC (-1.5) −16pp 36→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5) −11pp 31→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) −9pp 38→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market assigns an equal 50% probability to FC Seoul winning their match against Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The market is currently thin, with data aggregated from a single Polymarket contract showing minimal 24-hour trading volume of $265. Seoul's recent form against comparable opponents and Gimcheon Sangmu's defensive record would likely influence the probability directionally. The match outcome will resolve definitively once the fixture is played, with team lineups, weather conditions, and any last-minute roster changes potentially affecting pre-match expectations. Currently, the equal split suggests genuine uncertainty about the result, though larger trading volume would typically reveal stronger directional conviction from informed bettors on either team's likelihood of victory.

### Key factors

- FC Seoul's win percentage and goal differential in their last 5 K League 1 matches before this fixture
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record and goals conceded per match over the same recent period
- Head-to-head history between these two teams, if available, including venue advantage
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either squad ahead of match day
- Trading volume and contract spreads on Polymarket remain below $300 in 24h volume, suggesting limited market conviction or late discovery of the fixture

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-seoul-vs-gimcheon-sangmu-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-seoul-vs-gimcheon-sangmu-fc

## License

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