# FC Spartak Trnava vs. MŠK Žilina - More Markets: FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5)

> FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5) leads at 33%, runner-up 21% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-spartak-trnava-vs-mk-ilina-more-markets-fc-spartak
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:20:14.662Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5) at 33%
- Runner-up: FC Spartak Trnava (-2.5) at 21%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-spartak-trnava-vs-mk-ilina-more-markets-fc-spar-polymarket-0x34e1aa2169bcbf392c3cd921cb2ca95ca021f2cf0d688975e8430ea1b7582613 |
| FC Spartak Trnava (-2.5) | 21¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-spartak-trnava-vs-mk-ilina-more-markets-fc-spar-polymarket-0xdd324a60870231eda32b60dc367190296cec4f46cf339d3c68602a9f54b55f0f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5) | FC Spartak Trnava (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 27 | 22 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 | 20 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 | 21 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 18 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · FC Spartak Trnava (-1.5) +3pp 27→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · FC Spartak Trnava (-2.5) −3pp 21→18¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 33% probability that FC Spartak Trnava will defeat MŠK Žilina by a margin greater than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests bookmakers and traders view Žilina as the favored team or expect a closer contest. Key drivers of this probability include each team's current form, head-to-head history, home/away status, and player availability. The market will resolve when the match concludes and the final score is recorded, at which point the outcome becomes certain based on whether Trnava's margin of victory exceeds 1.5 goals.

### Key factors

- Current league standings and recent form of both FC Spartak Trnava and MŠK Žilina (wins/losses in last 5-10 matches)
- Head-to-head historical performance between these teams in recent seasons, including goal differential patterns
- Home or away designation for FC Spartak Trnava in this fixture, as it significantly impacts goal-scoring probability
- Injury reports or roster changes for key players on either squad that would affect expected output
- The match date and time relative to the current date (2026-05-04) to assess how imminent the resolution event is

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-spartak-trnava-vs-mk-ilina-more-markets-fc-spartak
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-spartak-trnava-vs-mk-ilina-more-markets-fc-spartak

## License

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