# FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba - More Markets: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)

> O/U 1.5 leads at 77%, runner-up 65% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-jef-united
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:29.627Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 77%
- Runner-up: FC Tōkyō at 65%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 77¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xf4e7f580f19c3ac682f676eabee37dfbfe1d8ed0b02607b2283162b245bc2eb9 |
| FC Tōkyō | 65¢ | +18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-fc-tky-polymarket-0xd5f09f6d966dd3c8727eb13c91200ba46ed87cbb31a67eb0a7d56a806cc73626 |
| O/U 2.5 | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xc3210d9c9d571653f484ffea92327a43a7a7f7810db117771e91c715a96e64d9 |
| Both Teams to Score | 46¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x47d52bb27d62033542236cf8ed946ec29d0cdd9661b710c76d54838848879c5a |
| FC Tōkyō (-1.5) | 38¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x3724ce935c950bdee92ab9a7bccf463e09268169716ba78066ecb90f53e98650 |
| O/U 3.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xa222ae03ae5427ae4af3d7ace4d99341683b51a54e51ec0858bee1c46cba3262 |
| Draw (FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba) | 23¢ | −5pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-draw-fc-tky-vs-polymarket-0xb361f90bba3856675aa64542ccaf60644763b8474aab2dc6e0a5ee413d9f8895 |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 14¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-jef-united-ich-polymarket-0xdc8c78eda79ade97956dba9bf9eab7206e09111b0fd180b5111cfdbd49afb5f6 |
| FC Tōkyō (-2.5) | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x77dc654bee03e970eb4717a8f7301a5b3ed7db50872bf9e9b3f6b875cd12c67e |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x371c76e1be96a44ed1b3fe9c187813b39f4ab0a2d3630296cbe029302669f813 |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5) | 11¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-j-polymarket-0x6d4f0c510ebcdb69b7b6b129d6e60732f25b99d1f0574ff58ee6df211ddb5c80 |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5) | 10¢ | +13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-j-polymarket-0x33b4f0281337c93203a6b95c5159b2753735d793dc2f6c3bfe1bc7f0ca28ef17 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | FC Tōkyō | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | 41 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 77 | 48 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 76 | 66 | 51 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · FC Tōkyō +18pp 48→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5) +13pp 9→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · JEF United Ichihara Chiba −12pp 35→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · JEF United Ichihara Chiba −10pp 23→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5) +10pp 10→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

JEF United Ichihara Chiba is priced at 11% to win by more than 2.5 goals against FC Tōkyō. This represents a decisive underdog position, reflecting expectations that either FC Tōkyō wins or the match remains closer than a three-goal margin. The probability reflects both teams' recent form, historical head-to-head records, and home/away dynamics in the J-League. Market participants are pricing in FC Tōkyō as the likely winner or a narrow result. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled fixture date. Movement in this probability would reflect pre-match team news, injury updates, or betting shifts as kickoff approaches. Low trading volume ($11 24-hour volume) indicates limited market depth for this specific spread contract.

### Key factors

- FC Tōkyō's league position, recent win/loss record, and historical advantage over JEF United Ichihara Chiba
- JEF United's attacking output and defensive vulnerability, particularly whether they score 3+ goals in recent matches
- Home advantage effect and venue impact, as location determines psychological and tactical dynamics
- Injury status of key players on both squads, especially strikers and defensive anchors that influence goal-scoring potential
- Historical spread outcomes in this matchup and typical goal differentials in J-League contests between mid-table competitors

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-jef-united
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-jef-united

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