# When will FDA announce Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List

> Before 2027 leads at 59%, runner-up 51% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaannounce-bpc
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:49.492Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before 2027 at 59%
- Runner-up: Before September at 51%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $400

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 59¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-fda-announce-reclassification-of-bpc-157-kalshi-kxfdaannounce-bpc-27jan01 |
| Before September | 51¢ | +3pp | $193 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-fda-announce-reclassification-of-bpc-157-kalshi-kxfdaannounce-bpc-26sep01 |
| Before November | 49¢ | ±0 | $107 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-fda-announce-reclassification-of-bpc-157-kalshi-kxfdaannounce-bpc-26nov01 |
| Before July | 3¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-fda-announce-reclassification-of-bpc-157-kalshi-kxfdaannounce-bpc-26jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before 2027 | Before September | Before November |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | — | 17 | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 41 | 16 | 26 |
| 2026-06-14 | 59 | 29 | — |
| 2026-06-15 | — | 28 | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 42 | 39 | 34 |
| 2026-06-22 | 60 | 40 | 55 |
| 2026-06-27 | 60 | 45 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | 60 | — | 49 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Before November −7pp 55→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Before September +3pp 42→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 43% chance that the FDA will reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List by a specific future date. The current probability reflects BPC-157's status as a peptide without FDA approval for therapeutic use, balanced against growing research interest and potential pathway movements. Key factors driving this level include the peptide's current regulatory classification, the pace of clinical research submissions, and FDA's historical approach to bulk drug categorization. The most significant catalyst would be an FDA announcement, formal petition for reclassification, or a major clinical program submission that signals regulatory acceptance. BPC-157's track record in research demonstrates bioactivity in animal models, but human clinical evidence remains limited, creating uncertainty about whether the FDA would elevate its classification status in the near term.

### Key factors

- Current BPC-157 regulatory status as an unapproved investigational substance without existing Category 1 designation
- Pace of clinical trial initiation or IND applications submitted to FDA that specifically reference BPC-157
- Historical FDA timelines for bulk drug substance reclassifications and typical catalyst events that trigger such reviews
- Competition from other peptide therapies with more advanced clinical development status
- Public or regulatory signals indicating FDA's receptiveness to BPC-157 programs in therapeutic areas like gastroenterology or neuroprotection

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaannounce-bpc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fdaannounce-bpc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.