# Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2028

> Before Jul 1, 2027 leads at 81%, runner-up 70% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaapprove-cag
Updated: 2026-05-25T14:20:10.883Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 81%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 70%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-cagrisema-before-jul-1-2027-b-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-cag-27jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 70¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-cagrisema-before-jan-1-2027-b-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-cag-27jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-cagrisema-before-jan-1-2028-b-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-cag-28jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 35¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-cagrisema-before-oct-1-2026-b-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-cag-26oct01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 22¢ | −3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-cagrisema-before-jul-1-2026-b-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-cag-26jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 33 | 36 | 58 |
| 2026-05-17 | 77 | 56 | 48 |
| 2026-05-18 | 81 | 72 | 51 |
| 2026-05-22 | 84 | 64 | 59 |
| 2026-05-24 | 83 | — | 60 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-18 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +16pp 56→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −8pp 72→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-18 · Before Jul 1, 2027 +4pp 77→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-19 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +4pp 51→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Before Jul 1, 2026 −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaapprove-cag
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fdaapprove-cag

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.