# Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2032 leads at 52%, runner-up 49% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaapprove-mdma
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:07.700Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2032-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2032 at 52%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2030 at 49%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $60

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2032 | 52¢ | −6pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-midomafetamine-mdma-for-ptsd-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-mdma-32jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 49¢ | +2pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-midomafetamine-mdma-for-ptsd-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-mdma-30jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 49¢ | +4pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-midomafetamine-mdma-for-ptsd-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-mdma-31jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 44¢ | +7pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-midomafetamine-mdma-for-ptsd-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-mdma-29jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 32¢ | +1pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-midomafetamine-mdma-for-ptsd-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-mdma-28jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22¢ | +1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fda-approve-midomafetamine-mdma-for-ptsd-kalshi-kxfdaapprove-mdma-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2032 | Before Jan 1, 2030 | Before Jan 1, 2031 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 38 | 39 | 41 |
| 2026-05-17 | 52 | 46 | 49 |
| 2026-05-19 | — | 47 | — |
| 2026-05-21 | — | 49 | — |
| 2026-05-22 | 54 | — | 46 |
| 2026-05-27 | — | — | 49 |
| 2026-05-28 | 51 | — | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +28pp 3→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Before Jan 1, 2028 −22pp 32→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +19pp 2→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −18pp 31→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −11pp 42→31¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaapprove-mdma
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fdaapprove-mdma

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.