# When will the FDA approve retatrutide (LY3437943)

> Before Jan 1, 2029 leads at 91%, runner-up 86% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaretatrutide-ret
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.214Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2029 at 91%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 1, 2028 at 86%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $594

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-fda-approve-retatrutide-ly3437943-be-kalshi-kxfdaretatrutide-ret-29jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 86¢ | +39pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-fda-approve-retatrutide-ly3437943-be-kalshi-kxfdaretatrutide-ret-28jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 85¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-fda-approve-retatrutide-ly3437943-be-kalshi-kxfdaretatrutide-ret-28jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-fda-approve-retatrutide-ly3437943-be-kalshi-kxfdaretatrutide-ret-27jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22¢ | ±0 | $594 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-fda-approve-retatrutide-ly3437943-be-kalshi-kxfdaretatrutide-ret-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2029 | Before Jul 1, 2028 | Before Jan 1, 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 52 | 47 | 50 |
| 2026-05-17 | 92 | 87 | 82 |
| 2026-05-19 | 60 | 46 | 44 |
| 2026-05-22 | 91 | 85 | 80 |
| 2026-05-24 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-05-27 | — | — | 84 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Before Jul 1, 2028 +39pp 46→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +36pp 44→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Before Jul 1, 2027 +35pp 35→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Before Jan 1, 2029 +31pp 60→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −6pp 36→30¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdaretatrutide-ret
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fdaretatrutide-ret

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.