# Will MegaETH FDV be above $2000000000 at 10:00 AM ET on Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 15 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdvmegaeth
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.180Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-27

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $64K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $200000 | 4¢ | ±0 | $41K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-200000-by-jan-1-2027-at-1159-kalshi-kxbtc2026200-27jan01-200000 |
| Before January 2027 | 15¢ | −3pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-10000000-by-jan-1-2027-at-12-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-dec |
| 7,800 or above | 53¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-sp500-value-reach-779999-by-jan-1-kalshi-kxinxmaxy-01jan2027-7799.99 |
| 8,600 or above | 6¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-sp500-value-reach-859999-by-jan-1-kalshi-kxinxmaxy-01jan2027-8599.99 |
| $2,000,000,000+ | 24¢ | +1pp | $413 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-199999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-1999999999 |
| 8,000 or above | 41¢ | +3pp | $227 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-sp500-value-reach-799999-by-jan-1-kalshi-kxinxmaxy-01jan2027-7999.99 |
| Above $3,500.00 | 13¢ | ±0 | $114 | kalshi | /markets/will-ethereum-reach-above-350000-by-jan-1-2027-at-kalshi-kxethmaxy-27jan01-3500.00 |
| $5,000,000,000+ | 15¢ | −1pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-499999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-4999999999 |
| Above $5,000.00 | 5¢ | −1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-ethereum-reach-above-500000-by-jan-1-2027-at-kalshi-kxethmaxy-27jan01-5000.00 |
| Above $4,500.00 | 3¢ | −1pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-ethereum-reach-above-450000-by-jan-1-2027-at-kalshi-kxethmaxy-27jan01-4500.00 |
| $10,000,000,000+ | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-999999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-9999999999 |
| Above 1000 | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-1000-semi-trucks-produ-kalshi-kxteslasemi-27jan-1000 |
| Above 4.00% | 18¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jan-t4.00 |
| Above 3.25% | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-funds-rate-be-kalshi-kxfed-27jan-t3.25 |
| 8,200 or above | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-sp500-value-reach-819999-by-jan-1-kalshi-kxinxmaxy-01jan2027-8199.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 30 |
| 2026-06-12 | 26 |
| 2026-06-19 | 30 |
| 2026-06-26 | 22 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · 8,000 or above −11pp 43→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · 7,800 or above −10pp 67→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 4.00% −9pp 26→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 3.25% −8pp 68→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 8,200 or above −8pp 26→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether MegaETH will have a fully diluted valuation exceeding $2 billion by January 1, 2027—roughly seven months away. The 32% probability reflects moderate skepticism about the asset reaching that valuation threshold. The outcome primarily depends on broader crypto market conditions, particularly whether Ethereum and major cryptocurrencies sustain or exceed current price levels, since token valuations typically correlate with the overall market environment. Secondary factors include MegaETH-specific adoption metrics and competition from other layer-2 or alternative platforms. The resolution will be determined by publicly available market data on January 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET, with no scheduled catalysts between now and then—the probability will adjust gradually based on crypto market movements and any project-specific announcements or developments.

### Key factors

- Current Ethereum and broader crypto market prices at resolution will directly influence whether a $2B FDV for MegaETH is plausible relative to comparable projects
- MegaETH's token supply and circulating supply structure determines the token price needed to achieve the $2B FDV target
- Competitive positioning among Ethereum scaling solutions and layer-2 protocols will affect relative valuation multiples assigned to the ecosystem
- Historical correlation between Bitcoin/Ethereum price movements and altcoin valuations suggests macro crypto market direction is the primary driver of this outcome
- Any major protocol upgrades, regulatory changes, or security issues affecting Ethereum or the broader ecosystem between now and January 1, 2027 could significantly alter the probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdvmegaeth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fdvmegaeth

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.