# Will Opensea FDV be above $9999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027

> $2,000,000,000+ leads at 24%, runner-up 15% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdvopensea
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.516Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $2,000,000,000+ at 24%
- Runner-up: $5,000,000,000+ at 15%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $461

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,000,000,000+ | 24¢ | +1pp | $413 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-199999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-1999999999 |
| $5,000,000,000+ | 15¢ | −1pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-499999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-4999999999 |
| $8,000,000,000+ | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-799999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-7999999999 |
| $15,000,000,000+ | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-1499999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-14999999999 |
| $10,000,000,000+ | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-opensea-fdv-be-above-999999999999-at-1000-am-kalshi-kxfdvopensea-27jan01-9999999999 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $2,000,000,000+ | $5,000,000,000+ | $8,000,000,000+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| 2026-06-11 | 14 | 8 | 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | 14 | 9 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 20 | 15 | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 26 | 17 | 5 |
| 2026-06-23 | 26 | 16 | 6 |
| 2026-06-26 | 26 | 15 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · $2,000,000,000+ +6pp 20→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether OpenSea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed $10 billion at the start of 2027. The current 13% probability reflects skepticism about such a valuation level within 8 months. The main drivers are OpenSea's trading volume trends, competitive pressure from other NFT marketplaces, and broader crypto market sentiment. A resolution depends on OpenSea's token price and fully diluted share count on January 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM—both inputs are objective and verifiable from blockchain data and official sources. Major catalysts include significant platform updates, changes in NFT market adoption rates, or token listings that would affect the FDV calculation directly.

### Key factors

- OpenSea's daily trading volume and market share in the NFT ecosystem as of late 2026
- Token price on January 1, 2027 and the total fully diluted supply at resolution time
- Competitive developments from rival platforms like Magic Eden, Blur, or new entrants
- Broader crypto market conditions and institutional adoption of NFTs in Q4 2026
- Any announced token distribution events or changes to OpenSea's tokenomics before resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fdvopensea
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fdvopensea

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.