# What will the Fear & Greed Index be on Jul 2, 2026

> Greed leads at 43%, runner-up 31% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fear
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:50.275Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-04

## Headline

- Leader: Greed at 43%
- Runner-up: Fear at 31%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greed | 43¢ | −9pp | $617 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-14-2026-greed-kalshi-kxfear-26aug14-gree |
| Fear | 31¢ | ±0 | $240 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-28-2026-fear-kalshi-kxfear-26aug28-fear |
| Fear | 27¢ | +4pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-14-2026-fear-kalshi-kxfear-26aug14-fear |
| Greed | 26¢ | −20pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-21-2026-greed-kalshi-kxfear-26aug21-gree |
| Fear | 25¢ | −5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-21-2026-fear-kalshi-kxfear-26aug21-fear |
| Neutral | 22¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-28-2026-neutral-kalshi-kxfear-26aug28-neut |
| Greed | 22¢ | +5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-28-2026-greed-kalshi-kxfear-26aug28-gree |
| Neutral | 18¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-21-2026-neutral-kalshi-kxfear-26aug21-neut |
| Neutral | 13¢ | +1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-14-2026-neutral-kalshi-kxfear-26aug14-neut |
| Extreme Fear | 9¢ | +18pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-21-2026-extreme-fear-kalshi-kxfear-26aug21-xfear |
| Extreme Greed | 8¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-28-2026-extreme-greed-kalshi-kxfear-26aug28-xgree |
| Extreme Fear | 8¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-28-2026-extreme-fear-kalshi-kxfear-26aug28-xfear |
| Extreme Greed | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-14-2026-extreme-greed-kalshi-kxfear-26aug14-xgree |
| Extreme Fear | 3¢ | +14pp | $92 | kalshi | /markets/fear-greed-index-on-aug-14-2026-extreme-fear-kalshi-kxfear-26aug14-xfear |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Greed | Fear | Fear |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | 21 | — | 30 |
| 2026-07-27 | — | — | 35 |
| 2026-08-02 | 25 | — | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — | 27 | 36 |
| 2026-08-07 | 34 | 31 | 29 |
| 2026-08-08 | 50 | 31 | 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | 41 | — | 27 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Greed +31pp 13→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Extreme Fear −21pp 25→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Greed −20pp 44→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Extreme Fear +18pp 8→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Greed +16pp 34→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Fear & Greed Index measures market sentiment on a scale from extreme fear to extreme greed, with this contract predicting which sentiment will dominate on July 2, 2026. The 49% probability for Fear reflects recent market volatility and uncertainty, with trading volume concentrated on Neutral (48% implied) and Fear outcomes. The Index responds to macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical developments, and shifts in asset valuations. Near-term catalysts include economic data releases, central bank communications, and equity market movements in the two days before resolution. The current distribution suggests meaningful disagreement among traders about whether sentiment will remain cautious or shift toward either extreme fear or recovery.

### Key factors

- Fear and Neutral contracts account for 97% of implied probability, indicating traders expect no greed-driven sentiment
- Neutral contract has highest 24-hour volume ($948) despite lowest price (10¢), suggesting active repositioning between fear and neutrality
- The 49% Fear price is the leading outcome but not dominant, with 51% probability distributed across other sentiment buckets
- Extreme Fear at 30% probability indicates non-trivial tail risk, requiring either economic deterioration or crisis-level events by July 2
- Greed contract priced at 3¢ reflects minimal trader confidence in positive market sentiment within the two-day window

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fear
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fear

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.