# Will Doja Cat be featured on Ariana Grande's album titled 'petal'

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 5 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/feature
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:48.849Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $62

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicki Minaj | 6¢ | +2pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicki-minaj-be-featured-on-ariana-grandes-alb-kalshi-kxfeature-26pet-nic |
| The Weeknd | 35¢ | −10pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-be-featured-on-ariana-grandes-albu-kalshi-kxfeature-26pet-wee |
| Doja Cat | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doja-cat-be-featured-on-ariana-grandes-album-kalshi-kxfeature-26pet-doj |
| Pharrell Williams | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pharrell-williams-be-featured-on-ariana-grand-kalshi-kxfeature-26pet-pha |
| Travis Scott | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-be-featured-on-ariana-grandes-al-kalshi-kxfeature-26pet-tra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 5 |
| 2026-04-30 | 11 |
| 2026-05-01 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · The Weeknd +23pp 15→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · The Weeknd −10pp 35→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · The Weeknd −7pp 38→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · The Weeknd +4pp 31→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Doja Cat +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether Doja Cat will appear on Ariana Grande's upcoming album 'petal.' At 42%, the market suggests roughly even odds but slight skepticism about a collaboration. The probability reflects that while both artists are commercially active—Grande is expected to release new music and potentially achieve chart success this year—no announcement of Doja Cat's involvement has been made public. The main upward pressure comes from both artists' established history of collaborations and their overlapping fanbases. Downward pressure stems from the absence of any confirmed partnership and the album's presumably near-complete production status. The resolution hinges on the 'petal' album's official release and tracklist, which would definitively confirm or deny Doja Cat's participation. Until then, the market is pricing in moderate uncertainty around whether these two artists will connect on this particular project.

### Key factors

- No official announcement or leak has surfaced confirming Doja Cat on the 'petal' tracklist as of early May 2026
- Ariana Grande's market probability of #1 album status (93¢) suggests strong anticipated album performance, but does not confirm specific features
- Doja Cat's 95¢ probability of Met Gala 2026 attendance indicates she remains a visible public figure, supporting feasibility of a high-profile collaboration
- The timeline for 'petal' release remains unspecified; unknown proximity to release date affects likelihood of surprise features versus pre-announced collaborations
- Both artists have collaborated with multiple partners across recent projects, making cross-artist features common but not guaranteed for any specific album

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/feature
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=feature

## License

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