# Will Adéla be featured on Midnight Sun (Deluxe) — Zara Larsson

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 16 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/featurezlarsson
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:29.601Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $54K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunrisers Hyderabad | 14¢ | +1pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-sunrisers-hyderabad-win-the-ipl-sunrisers-hyd-kalshi-kxipl-26-srh |
| Rain in NYC | 3¢ | +7pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-rain-in-new-york-city-on-sunday-rain-in-ny-kalshi-kxrainnyc-26may03-t0 |
| National Security | 32¢ | −4pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-markwayne-mullin-say-during-fox-news-sun-kalshi-kxfoxnewsmention-26may03-nati |
| Deport / Deportation | 54¢ | −10pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-markwayne-mullin-say-during-fox-news-sun-kalshi-kxfoxnewsmention-26may03-depo |
| TSA | 58¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-markwayne-mullin-say-during-fox-news-sun-kalshi-kxfoxnewsmention-26may03-tsa |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 83¢ | +15pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-markwayne-mullin-say-during-fox-news-sun-kalshi-kxfoxnewsmention-26may03-shut |
| Iran | 21¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-markwayne-mullin-say-during-fox-news-sun-kalshi-kxfoxnewsmention-26may03-iran |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 17¢ | ±0 | $992 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-markwayne-mullin-say-during-fox-news-sun-kalshi-kxfoxnewsmention-26may03-oil |
| PinkPantheress | 21¢ | −5pp | $894 | kalshi | /markets/will-pinkpantheress-be-featured-on-drakes-album-ic-kalshi-kxfeaturedrake-27-pin |
| EsDeeKid | 44¢ | −5pp | $586 | kalshi | /markets/will-esdeekid-be-featured-on-drakes-album-iceman-e-kalshi-kxfeaturedrake-27-esd |
| Justin Bieber | 6¢ | −2pp | $470 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-bieber-be-featured-on-drakes-album-ice-kalshi-kxfeaturedrake-27-jus |
| Playboi Carti | 13¢ | −9pp | $277 | kalshi | /markets/will-playboi-carti-be-featured-on-drakes-album-ice-kalshi-kxfeaturedrake-27-pla |
| Kanye West / Ye | 15¢ | −2pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/will-kanye-west-ye-be-featured-on-drakes-album-ice-kalshi-kxfeaturedrake-27-ye |
| Sunday Night Football | 54¢ | — | $176 | kalshi | /markets/will-sunday-night-football-win-the-47th-annual-spo-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olss-sun |
| Metro Boomin | 4¢ | −3pp | $73 | kalshi | /markets/will-metro-boomin-be-featured-on-drakes-album-icem-kalshi-kxfeaturedrake-27-met |
| Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?: Ryo Hisatsune | 5¢ | −1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/cadillac-championship-will-ryo-hisatsune-finish-to-kalshi-kxpgatop20-cac26-rhis |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 13 |
| 2026-04-19 | 9 |
| 2026-04-26 | 19 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · PinkPantheress −18pp 45→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Will Ryo Hisatsune finish top 20?: Ryo Hisatsune −16pp 18→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Shutdown / Shut Down +15pp 51→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · PinkPantheress −13pp 43→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Playboi Carti +12pp 16→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is assessing whether Adéla will appear as a featured artist on the deluxe edition of Zara Larsson's album Midnight Sun. The 29% probability reflects moderate skepticism about the collaboration's likelihood. Kalshi traders price it at 30%, suggesting slightly higher odds than Polymarket's 13% assessment, though both lean toward non-inclusion. The primary factors affecting this probability are the album's official tracklist release and any announced collaborations from either artist's camp. The resolution hinges on whether the deluxe edition's final tracklist—when officially published—includes Adéla as a credited featured artist. Supply-side factors like studio records, label statements, or pre-release promotional announcements would provide concrete evidence before official publication.

### Key factors

- Official tracklist publication for Midnight Sun (Deluxe) edition will definitively resolve whether Adéla appears as a featured artist
- Prior collaboration history between Zara Larsson and Adéla, or lack thereof, may indicate likelihood of a new feature
- The timing of album announcement, any teased features, or official promotional materials mentioning Adéla would shift market pricing
- Record label or artist social media statements confirming or denying the collaboration would provide clear resolution signals
- The broader context of similar deluxe edition additions—whether bonus features are typically collaborations or solo recordings

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/featurezlarsson
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=featurezlarsson

## License

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