# Fed Decision in July

> Closed. Last odds frozen 27 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-decision-july
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-29

## Headline

- Leader: No change at 80%
- Runner-up: 25 bps increase at 19%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $813K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 80¢ | −3pp | $488K | polymarket | /markets/fed-decision-in-july-no-change-polymarket-0x8bf1c1536ecb1c08fe13c6b71e8ab1f58bf3461c4cb79f5f1679f869a06aef86 |
| 25 bps increase | 19¢ | +4pp | $325K | polymarket | /markets/fed-decision-in-july-25-bps-increase-polymarket-0xb5c0abeecb5502e6e8d83155c27819174d8317af3c425c3afc5a8c45257a3793 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No change | 25 bps increase |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 94 | 3 |
| 2026-06-17 | 83 | 14 |
| 2026-06-18 | 80 | 18 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 38% probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its July 2026 meeting. The futures market shows overwhelming confidence in no rate change at the June meeting (96% implied probability), which anchors expectations for July. The probability of a July cut sits well below the "no change" scenario (88%), suggesting markets currently expect the Fed to maintain rates steady through mid-year. The 4-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi reflects typical venue differences and relatively low liquidity in the July decrease contracts ($15,812 in 24-hour volume). Shifts in this probability would depend primarily on inflation data between now and July, employment reports, Fed communications about economic conditions, and any financial stability concerns that might prompt earlier action.

### Key factors

- June meeting is priced at 96% no-change, constraining July cut probability by establishing a baseline hold scenario
- July decrease contracts show minimal volume ($15,812 for 25 bps cut vs. $141,546 for no-change), indicating lower conviction and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- Next major economic data releases (CPI, PCE, jobs reports) through June will be primary drivers of probability repricing
- Fed officials' public communications and forward guidance between now and late June could shift rate-cut expectations significantly
- No rate increase is priced near zero (3¢), suggesting near-complete market confidence that tightening is off the table by July

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-decision-july
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fed-decision-july
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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