# Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-decisions-aprjul
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-29

## Headline

- Leader: Pause–Pause–Pause at 75%
- Runner-up: Other at 15%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $105

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 75¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fed-decisions-apr-jul-pausepausepause-polymarket-0x647fe897e10ecde7f5bf00b420cd00b76634b7de8830ae683136c9d3102c5532 |
| Other | 15¢ | +7pp | $64 | polymarket | /markets/fed-decisions-apr-jul-other-polymarket-0x7618e80c410d107b9929455007e4ccf649630ac6aec6a76ebcd04ae9946dd514 |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 4¢ | +1pp | $41 | polymarket | /markets/fed-decisions-apr-jul-pausepausecut-polymarket-0xcc4d677ee6e9ccf49ef775ff434ee1e3075a006a81e1d5032f0343964a00bdac |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Pause–Pause–Pause | Other | Pause–Pause–Cut |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 94 | 4 | 3 |
| 2026-06-10 | 87 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-06-17 | 88 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-06-18 | 74 | 14 | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Pause–Pause–Pause −14pp 88→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · Other +7pp 7→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Pause–Pause–Pause −7pp 95→88¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at three consecutive meetings from March through June 2026. At 95%, traders are pricing in an extremely high likelihood of continued policy pauses rather than rate cuts or hikes. The current level reflects Fed communications suggesting persistent inflation concerns and the recent pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in late 2024. The main factors supporting this high pause probability are sticky inflation metrics and recent Fed guidance emphasizing caution. Movements would likely follow Consumer Price Index releases, employment data, and Fed speakers' comments about inflation and economic conditions. The June Federal Open Market Committee meeting represents a key decision point that could shift expectations, particularly if inflation data changes meaningfully before then.

### Key factors

- PCE inflation readings for April-May 2026 will directly influence expectations about Fed patience; persistent above-target inflation would reinforce pause odds
- Monthly employment reports and jobless claims data between now and June will signal labor-market strength and constraint; stronger-than-expected job creation typically supports continued pauses
- Fed communications and speaker remarks, especially from Chair Powell and other voting members, will indicate confidence in the inflation trajectory
- Market pricing for March-June contracts (95%) versus April-July contracts (86%) suggests slightly elevated uncertainty about the second pause in the latter window
- Historical volatility in these contracts is very low ($0 24h volume on three of five contracts), indicating thin liquidity and potential for larger moves if economic data surprises

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fed-decisions-aprjul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fed-decisions-aprjul
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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